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Journal Article
What the Moment Demands
Daly, Mary C. (2023-11-20)
When central banks are unsure about how the economy will evolve, what impact their policies will have, or how fundamental benchmarks in the economy are changing, the optimal strategy is a gradualist approach to policy. The challenge will be to respond rapidly when the situation requires and to resist the pressure to act quickly when patience is needed. The following is adapted from the closing keynote by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany, on November 17.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 30 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Fiscal Expansions in the Era of Low Real Interest Rates
Garga, Vaishali (2020-04-01)
Low natural real interest rates limit the power of monetary policy to revive the economy due to the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Fiscal stabilization via higher government debt is frequently recommended as a policy to raise the natural real interest rate. This paper builds a non-Ricardian framework to study the tradeoffs associated with a debt-financed fiscal expansion and show that even in a low real interest rate environment, higher debt doesn’t necessarily raise the real interest rate. The effect of the expansion is non-monotonic: Increasing debt raises the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

Report
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
Benigno, Gianluca; Groen, Jan J. J. (2020-03-01)
We revisit in this note the macroeconomic impact of the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty. As in the literature, we do find that high trade policy uncertainty can adversely impact domestic and foreign economic activity. In addition, we identify an alternative business sentiment channel that is separate and distinct from the impact of trade policy uncertainty, which provides a complementary explanation of the recent developments in the U.S. and global economic activities. This sentiment channel also implies that subsiding trade policy uncertainty does not necessarily result in a recovery ...
Staff Reports , Paper 919

Working Paper
Robust Dynamic Optimal Taxation and Environmental Externalities
Li, Xin; Narajabad, Borghan N.; Temzelides, Ted (2014-05-29)
We study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which agents are concerned about model uncertainty regarding climate change. An externality from greenhouse gas emissions damages the economy's capital stock. We assume that the mapping from climate change to damages is subject to uncertainty, and we use robust control theory techniques to study efficiency and optimal policy. We obtain a sharp analytical solution for the implied environmental externality and characterize dynamic optimal taxation. A small increase in the concern about model uncertainty can cause a significant drop in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-75

Working Paper
The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty
Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W.; Plante, Michael D. (2014-05-21)
This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data?away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly ...
Working Papers , Paper 1405

Working Paper
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
Scotti, Chiara (2023-07-07)
The past 15 years have been eventful. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) reminded us of the importance of a stable financial system to a well-functioning economy, one with low and stable inflation and maximum employment. Given the recent banking stress, we ponder this issue again. The pandemic was a huge shock surrounded by much uncertainty, making precise forecasts within traditional models difficult. And more recently, there has been continuous talk of a soft landing and recession risks.In this paper, I focus on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail ...
Working Papers , Paper 2308

Working Paper
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Schott, Peter K.; Pierce, Justin R. (2014-01)
This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the E.U., where there was no change in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-04

Journal Article
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-03-30)
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has severely disrupted economic activity through various supply and demand channels. The pandemic can also have pervasive economic impact by raising uncertainty. In the past, sudden and outsized spikes in uncertainty have led to large and protracted increases in unemployment and declines in inflation. These effects are similar to those resulting from declines in aggregate demand. Monetary policy accommodation, such as interest rate cuts, can help cushion the economy from such uncertainty shocks.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 07 , Pages 05

Working Paper
Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics
Roth Tran, Brigitte; Kruttli, Mathias S.; Watugala, Sumudu W. (2019-07-17)
We investigate the uncertainty dynamics surrounding extreme weather events through the lens of option and stock markets by identifying market responses to the uncertainty regarding both potential hurricane landfall and subsequent economic impact. Stock options on firms with establishments exposed to the landfall region exhibit increases in implied volatility of 5-10 percent, reflecting impact uncertainty. Using hurricane forecasts, we show that landfall uncertainty and potential impact uncertainty are reflected in prices before landfall. We find no evidence that markets incorporate better ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-054

Working Paper
Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency
Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo (2014-07-01)
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under constrained discretion, only short deviations occur: Agents are confident about a prompt return to the active regime, macroeconomic uncertainty is low, welfare is high. However, if a deviation persists, agents? beliefs start drifting, uncertainty accelerates, and welfare declines. If the duration of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-16

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