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Costly information, planning complementarities and the Phillips Curve
Standard sticky information pricing models successfully capture the sluggish movement of aggregate prices in response to monetary policy shocks but fail at matching the magnitude and frequency of price changes at the micro level. This paper shows that in a setting where firms choose when to acquire costly information about different types of shocks, strategic complementarities in pricing generate planning complementarities. This results in firms optimally updating their information about monetary policy shocks less frequently than about idiosyncratic shocks. When calibrated to match frequent ...
Report
Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. ?Life-experience inflation? has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncratic information explains a nontrivial proportion of the inflation forecasts of agents. We find that ...
Working Paper
Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
The most common New-Keynesian model--with sticky-prices--has potentially implausible implications in a zero-lower bound environment. Fiscal and forward guidance multipliers can be implausibly large. Moreover, the sticky-price model implies that positive supply shocks, such as an increase in productivity, will lower production, and that increased price flexibility can exacerbate such a decline in output (as well as amplifying the effects of other shocks). These results are fragile and disappear under a plausible alternative to sticky prices--sticky information: Fiscal and monetary multipliers ...
Working Paper
Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices Revisited: A Bayesian VAR-GMM Approach
Several Phillips curves based on sticky information and sticky prices are estimated and compared using Bayesian VAR-GMM. This method derives expectations in each Phillips curve from a VAR and estimates the Phillips curve parameters and the VAR coefficients simultaneously. Quasi-marginal likelihood-based model comparison selects a dual stickiness Phillips curve in which, each period, some prices remain unchanged, consistent with micro evidence. Moreover, sticky information is a more plausible source of inflation inertia in the Phillips curve than other sources proposed in previous studies. ...