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Discussion Paper
Signs of a Slowdown? Evidence From Our October Business Surveys
After a few months of upward movement in the headline indexes of our business surveys, results took a downward turn in October. This was especially true in the service sector, where both current and expected activity deteriorated noticeably. However, despite what may be evidence of a shift to a slower pace of demand, firms on balance appear to be holding steady on hiring plans, at least for the near term.
Journal Article
Sentiment Analysis of the Fifth District Manufacturing and Service Surveys
This article uses basic text analytic techniques to examine the sentiment embodied in two surveys conducted by the Richmond Fed: the Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys. Specifically, the article develops several sentiment indicators based on the comments provided by survey participants, contrasts the sentiment measures against responses to other survey questions, and analyzes the monthly evolution of the sentiment indicators during the period 2002-18. Two main conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, the indicators reflect reasonably well changes in economic sentiment along time. ...
Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms Are Cautiously Optimistic About 2024 Despite Concerns
At the start of both 2023 and 2024, we asked our business survey panelists about their expectations for the upcoming year. In our recent December survey, we found that most manufacturing firms were pessimistic about the U.S. economy going into 2024 but were more bullish about their own-firm prospects. Additionally, manufacturers were more likely than services firms to expect lower revenue, employment, spending, and price growth in 2024 than they experienced before COVID-19.