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Journal Article
Diagnosing recessions
Jordà, Òscar (2010)
The beginnings and ends of recessions are officially dated about 12 months after the fact. A common rule of thumb declares recessions as two quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth, but this is very inaccurate. A better option is to apply medical diagnostic evaluation methods to the business conditions indexes of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks, which suggests the recent recession ended sometime between June and August 2009.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Does the inverted yield curve signal a recession?
Faust, Jon (1989-03)
Financial Letters , Issue Mar

Report
Engineering a paradox of thrift recession
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Huo, Zhen (2012)
We build a variation of the neoclassical growth model in which financial shocks to households or wealth shocks (in the sense of wealth destruction) generate recessions. Two standard ingredients that are necessary are (1) the existence of adjustment costs that make the expansion of the tradable goods sector difficult and (2) the existence of some frictions in the labor market that prevent enormous reductions in real wages (Nash bargaining in Mortensen-Pissarides labor markets is enough). We pose a new ingredient that greatly magnifies the recession: a reduction in consumption expenditures ...
Staff Report , Paper 478

Journal Article
Commentary on The recession of 2001 and unemployment insurance financing
Sargent, Timothy C. (2005-08)
Proceedings of a Conference Cosponsored by the Canadian Consulate General in New York, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the New York Association for Business Economics.
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 81-84

Journal Article
Japan's recessions
Moreno, Ramon (1992)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Can Economists Predict Recessions?
Majerovitz, Jeremy (2023-09-26)
An analysis of 55 years of data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests that quarter-ahead recession forecasts are fairly accurate but still have a great deal of uncertainty.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Small Business Performance in Industries in LMI Neighborhoods After the Great Recession: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles
O'Dell, Mark; Newberger, Robin G.; Toussaint-Comeau, Maude (2019)
Small businesses are essential to the economic infrastructure of both lower-income and higher-income neighborhoods. In this report, we compare small business performance in lower-income vs higher-income areas. Findings offer some directions for growing small businesses in LMI and ethnic/minority neighborhoods
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 1-20

Working Paper
Regime changes and monetary stagflation
Knotek, Edward S. (2006)
This paper examines whether monetary shocks can consistently generate stagflation in a dynamic, stochastic setting. I assume that the monetary authority can induce transitory shocks and longer-lasting monetary regime changes in its operating instrument. Firms cannot distinguish between these shocks and must learn about them using a signal extraction problem. The possibility of changes in the monetary regime greatly improves the ability of money to generate stagflation. This is true whether the regime actually changes or not. If the monetary regime changes on average once every ten years, ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 06-05

Journal Article
Has inventory volatility returned? A look at the current cycle
McConnell, Margaret M.; Kahn, James A. (2002-05)
The massive liquidation of inventories during the 2001 recession contrasts sharply with the more moderate inventory movements observed in recent decades. While the rundown might be seen as evidence that firms are not managing their inventories as effectively as some economists have claimed, a careful analysis of inventory behavior in 2001 suggests that during much of the recession, firms were successfully regulating their inventories to avoid a large buildup of excess stock.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue May

Journal Article
Economy's recovery poses challenges for district banks
Woosley, Lynn W.; Carlson, Rick; Easterwood, Lisa (2003-01-01)
The Sixth District banking industry has performed surprisingly well over the last few years in the face of challenging times. What's ahead in terms of regulatory changes, credit demand and bank profitability?
Financial Update , Volume 16 , Issue Q 1

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