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Journal Article
Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption
Cakir Melek, Nida; Pollard, Emily (2022-11-04)
Despite a contraction in real GDP in the first half of 2022, consumer spending has remained resilient. We examine a set of factors that have historically affected consumption growth and find that excess savings have boosted consumer spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as excess savings decline and economic relationships normalize, negative sentiment toward spending and declining real incomes may meaningfully lower consumption.
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Koşar, Gizem; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-05-26)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Speech
Desk Operations: The New Normal
Logan, Lorie (2021-04-08)
Remarks at the Annual Primary Dealer Meeting (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Implications of Student Loan COVID-19 Pandemic Relief Measures for Families with Children
Goodman, Sarena; Hannon, Simona; Isen, Adam; Mezza, Alvaro (2023-05-05)
The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic fallout likely posed particular financial strain on U.S. households with children, who faced income disruptions from widespread jobs and hours cuts in addition to new childcare and instruction demands. One common expense for many such households is their student loan payment. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act included provisions to curb the impacts of these payments, which have been extended several times. These measures were not targeted and thus applied independent of need. This chapter ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-025

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Speech
Liquidity Shocks: Lessons Learned from the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic
Logan, Lorie (2021-08-11)
Remarks at the 2021 Financial Crisis Forum, Panel on Lessons for Emergency Lending (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life
Garriga, Carlos; Manuelli, Rodolfo E.; Sanghi, Siddhartha (2022-02-24)
This paper analyzes the optimal management of a pandemic (stay-at-home and vaccination policies) in a dynamic model. The optimal lockdown policies respond to the spread of the virus with significant restrictions to employment, followed by partial loosening before the peak of the epidemic. Upon the availability of a vaccine, the optimal vaccination policy has an almost bang-bang property, despite the loss of immunity of the vaccinated: vaccinate at the highest possible rate, and then rapidly converge to the steady state. The model illustrates interesting trade-offs as it implies that lower ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-046

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?
Nie, Jun; Yang, Shu-Kuei X. (2021-08-11)
During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Discussion Paper
Delaying College During the Pandemic Can Be Costly
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2020-07-13)
Many students are reconsidering their decision to go to college in the fall due to the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, college enrollment is expected to be down sharply as a growing number of would-be college students consider taking a gap year. In part, this pullback reflects concerns about health and safety if colleges resume in-person classes, or missing out on the “college experience” if classes are held online. In addition, poor labor market prospects due to staggeringly high unemployment may be leading some to conclude that college is no longer worth it in this economic environment. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200713

Briefing
Pondering Payments: Challenges of Reaching All Americans
George, Esther L. (2020-06-30)
Policy Perspectives

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