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Discussion Paper
What’s New with Corporate Leverage?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) started increasing rates on March 16, 2022, and after the January 31–February 1, 2023, FOMC meeting, the lower bound of the target range of the federal funds rate had reached 4.50 percent, a level last registered in November 2007. Such a rapid rates increase could pass through to higher funding costs for U.S. corporations. In this post, we examine how corporate leverage and bond market debt have evolved over the course of the current tightening cycle and compare the current experience to that during the previous three tightening cycles.
Journal Article
Tightening Monetary Policy and Patterns of Consumption
An analysis examines the behavior of personal consumption expenditures during five episodes of monetary policy tightening since 1990.
Gauging the Fed’s Current Tightening Actions: A Historical Perspective
In 2022, the Fed started its current tightening cycle. How does it compare with other cycles in the past 40 years in terms of the magnitude of policy rate hikes?
Discussion Paper
Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk
The timely characterization of risks to the economic outlook plays an important role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. In a February 2023 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced the concept of “Outlook-at-Risk”—that is, the downside risk to real activity and two-sided risks to inflation. Today we are launching Outlook-at-Risk as a regularly updated data product, with new readings for the conditional distributions of real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation to be published each month. In this post, we use the data on conditional distributions to ...