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Discussion Paper
China’s Continuing Credit Boom
Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Rosenblum, Aaron; Etra, Alex (2017-02-27)
Debt in China has increased dramatically in recent years, accounting for roughly one-half of all new credit created globally since 2005. The country’s share of total global credit is nearly 25 percent, up from 5 percent ten years ago. By some measures (as documented below), China’s credit boom has reached the point where countries typically encounter financial stress, which could spill over to international markets given the size of the Chinese economy. To better understand the associated risks, it is important to examine the drivers of China’s expansion in credit, the increasing ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170227

Discussion Paper
Why Are China’s Households in the Doldrums?
Dawson, Jeffrey B. (2023-09-27)
A perennial challenge with China’s growth model has been overly high investment spending relative to GDP and unusually low consumer spending, something which China has long struggled to rebalance. As China attempts to move away from credit-intensive, investment-focused growth, the economy’s growth will have to rely on higher consumer spending. However, a prolonged household borrowing binge, COVID scarring and a deep slump in the property market in China have damaged household balance sheets and eroded consumer sentiment. In this post, we examine the impact of recent shocks on Chinese ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230927

Working Paper
Family Economics Writ Large
Greenwood, Jeremy; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Guner, Nezih (2016-11-01)
Powerful currents have reshaped the structure of families over the last century. There has been (i) a dramatic drop in fertility and greater parental investment in children; (ii) a rise in married female labor-force participation; (iii) a significant decline in marriage and a rise in divorce; (iv) a higher degree of positive assortative mating; (v) more children living with a single mother; (vi) shifts in social norms governing premarital sex and married women's roles in the workplace. Macroeconomic models explaining these aggregate trends are surveyed. The relent-less flow of technological ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-26

Speech
Three funerals and a wedding
Bullard, James B. (2008)
Regional Economic Summit, Evansville, Ind., Nov. 20, 2008
Speech , Paper 138

Working Paper
The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy
King, Robert G.; Goodfriend, Marvin (1998)
Macroeconomics is moving toward a New Neoclassical Synthesis, which like the synthesis of the 1960s melds Classical with Keynesian ideas. This paper describes the key features of the new synthesis and its implications for the role of monetary policy. We find that the New Neoclassical Synthesis rationalizes an activist monetary policy which is a simple system of inflation targets. Under this "neutral" monetary policy, real quantities evolve as suggested in the literature on real business cycles. Going beyond broad principles, we use the new synthesis to address several operational aspects of ...
Working Paper , Paper 98-05

Journal Article
Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model
Leeper, Eric M.; Zha, Tao (2001-10)
Monetary policy analysts looking for a model on which to base decisions may consider two popular approaches-the New Keynesian (NK) and the identified vector autoregression (VAR) approaches. Choosing between the two can be difficult: NK models are stylized and have simple rules while structural VAR models have complex dynamics and loose behavioral interpretations. ; The simpler NK models often produce stark conclusions. For example, NK analyses consistently find that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has improved markedly in the past two decades compared with the 1960s and 1970s. In ...
Economic Review , Volume 86 , Issue Q4 , Pages 35-58

Working Paper
Macroeconomic factors and asset excess returns
Tallman, Ellis W. (1989)
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 89-7

Working Paper
International coordination of macroeconomic policies: still alive in the new millennium?
Henderson, Dale W.; Doyle, Brian M.; Meyer, Laurence H.; Gagnon, Joseph E. (2002)
In this paper we provide two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the G-7 countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. Using these building blocks, we investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to draw lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. We find that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination, but ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 723

Working Paper
Income inequality and macroeconomic fluctuations
Owen, Ann L.; Iyigun, Murat F. (1997)
When per capita income is low, increases in income inequality make macroeconomic cycles less severe. We present a model in which access to credit is based on earnings potential. If low as well as middle income individuals are credit constrained, increases in income inequality lead to smaller fluctuations in aggregate consumption and output. Empirical evidence from cross-country data supports the view that greater income inequality causes lower variation of real consumption and output growth in low income countries. When per capita income is high, however, this effect is reversed.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 586

Working Paper
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation
Owyang, Michael T.; Wall, Howard J.; Piger, Jeremy M. (2007)
A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data and find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the state-level volatility reductions. In fact, some states experience no statistically-important reductions in volatility. We then exploit this cross sectional heterogeneity to evaluate hypotheses about the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively high concentrations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-003

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