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Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Faberman, R. Jason; Aaronson, Daniel (2020-04-01)
In this blog, we conduct an exercise to determine the potential consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on near-term labor market outcomes. This is not a forecast, but an attempt to provide some discipline around potential bounds of the number of jobs impacted by the crisis. We estimate that between nine and 26 million jobs are potentially affected,1 with a best guess of around 15 million. If these jobs are lost, the June unemployment rate could reach between 14% and 18%, with a best guess of around 15%.
Midwest Economy Blog

Working Paper
Punishment and Crime: The Impact of Felony Conviction on Criminal Activity
Jackson, Osborne (2019-10-01)
This paper uses increases in felony larceny thresholds as a negative shock to felony conviction probability to examine the impact of punishment severity on criminal behavior. In the theft value distribution between old and new larceny thresholds (“response region”), higher thresholds cause a 2 percent increase in the average larceny value within 120 days of enactment. However, within five years of enactment, response region average larceny values and rates decline 2 percentand 13 percent, respectively, in low-wage areas. Thus, under certain market conditions, smaller expected penalties ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-1

Conference Paper
Reassessing Economic Constraints: Maximum Employment or Maximum Hours?
Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Aaronson, Stephanie (2022-08-26)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Auray, Stéphane (2019-05-24)
The proportion of multiple jobholders (moonlighters) is negatively correlated with productivity (wages) in cross-sectional and time series data, but positively correlated with education. We develop a model of the labor market to understand these seemingly contradictory facts. An income e?ect explains the negative correlation with productivity while a comparative advantage of skilled workers explains the positive correlation with education. We provide empirical evidence of the comparative advantage in CPS data. We calibrate the model to 1994 data on multiple jobholdings, and assess its ability ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-16

Working Paper
Human Capital and Long-Run Labor Income Risk
Chyruk, Olena; Benzoni, Luca (2013-11-19)
This review article examines the role of labor income risk in determining the value of a person?s human capital. We draw on the existing literature to present a model that incorporates various types of shocks to earnings. Within this framework, we highlight the implications of different assumptions about the correlation between market returns and labor income growth for the value of human capital and its riskiness. Further, the article surveys other work that applies similar ideas to assess the value and risk of pension promises. Finally, we discuss how to enrich the environment with ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-16

Newsletter
Did Covid-19 disproportionately affect mothers’ labor market activity?
Hu, Luojia; Aaronson, Daniel; Rajan, Aastha (2021-01-14)
School and day care center restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have presented enormous challenges to parents trying to juggle work with child-care responsibilities. Still, empirical evidence on the impact of pandemic-related child-care constraints on the labor market outcomes of working parents is somewhat mixed. Some studies suggest the pandemic had no additional impact on the labor supply of parents, while other studies show not only that it did but that the negative impact was disproportionately borne by working mothers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 450 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Decline in Number of Workers with “Some College” Is Boosting Healthcare Wage Inflation
Pollard, Emily (2023-12-20)
Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the labor force contains about 1.5 million fewer individuals who have some post-secondary schooling but less than a bachelor’s degree. As a result, vacancies for jobs that require a post-secondary certificate or an associate degree remain elevated, especially in health-related fields. These shortages have contributed to higher wages in the fast-growing healthcare field and are unlikely to resolve quickly.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Marriage and Work among Prime-Age Men
Blandin, Adam; Jones, John Bailey; Yang, Fang (2023-01-13)
Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage. Two potential explanations for this increase are: (i) men hit by positive labor market shocks are more likely to marry; and (ii) the prospect of marriage increases men's labor supply. We quantify the relative importance of these two channels using a structural life-cycle model of marriage and labor supply. Our calibration implies that marriage substantially ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-02

Working Paper
Bundling Time and Goods: Implications for Hours Dispersion
Fang, Lei; Silos, Pedro; Hannusch, Anne (2020-01-01)
We document the large dispersion in hours worked in the cross-section. We account for this fact using a model in which households combine market inputs and time to produce a set of nonmarket activities. To estimate the model, we create a novel data set that pairs market expenditures and time use at the activity level using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and the American Time Use Survey, respectively. The estimated model can account for a large fraction of the dispersion of hours worked in the data. The substitutability between market inputs and time within an activity and across a ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-1

Working Paper
Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe
Fang, Lei; Yang, Fang (2022-09-08)
We document large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities. Using a life-cycle model with home production and endogenous retirement, we find that the cross-country differences in consumption tax, social security system, income tax and TFP together can account for 68-95 percent of the cross-country variations and more than half of the average differences between Europe and the United States in aggregate hours and expenditures. These factors can also account well for the cross-country differences in allocations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2216

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