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Working Paper
Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search
Gregory, Victoria (2023-09)
This paper demonstrates that heterogeneity in firms' promotion of human capital accumulation is an important determinant of life-cycle earnings inequality. To arrive at this finding, I develop a life-cycle search model with heterogeneous workers and firms. In the model, a worker's earnings can grow through both human capital accumulation and labor market competition channels. Human capital growth depends on both the worker's ability and the firm's learning environment. I apply the model to administrative micro data from Germany. While bringing the model to the data, I find evidence of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-036

Is the Unemployment Rate a Good Measure of People Currently Out of Work?
Faberman, R. Jason; Rajan, Aastha (2020-05-05)
Update, May 15, 2020: Following the release of the latest Current Population Survey estimates and related micro data, we are able to calculate the actual value of our U-Cov rate for April, which was 30.7% (not seasonally adjusted). This was over a 17 percentage point increase from March, significantly higher than the 10 percentage point increase in the official “U3” unemployment rate (to 14.4% in April). A 4.8 million increase in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons, a 4.3 million increase in those on unpaid leave, and a 4.5 million increase in those out of the ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2014-04)
This note examines labor market performance across countries through the lens of Okun?s Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun?s Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labor market policies in response to the global demand shock.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-11

Speech
The Initial Response to the Inflation Shock of 2021
Bullard, James B. (2022-01-06)
During a presentation for the CFA Society St. Louis, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said that U.S. inflation has surprised substantially to the upside in an environment where measures of real economic activity and labor market performance are expected to remain robust. “There has been an initial U.S. monetary policy response to the inflation shock, and this response is already reflected in financial market pricing,” he said.The Federal Open Market Committee “is in good position to take additional steps as necessary to control inflation, including allowing passive balance sheet ...
Speech

Working Paper
Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search
Gregory, Victoria (2021-01-28)
This paper demonstrates that heterogeneity in firms’ promotion of human capital accumulation is an important determinant of life-cycle earnings inequality. I use administrative micro data from Germany to show that different establishments offer systematically different earnings growth rates for their workers. This observation suggests that that the increase in inequality over the life cycle reflects not only inherent worker variation, but also differences in the firms that workers happen to match with over their lifetimes. To quantify this channel, I develop a life-cycle search model with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-036

Journal Article
The Employment Effect of an Increase in the National Minimum Wage: Review of International Evidence
Doh, Taeyoung; Van der Meer, Luca (2023-03-09)
Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually and steadily may help minimize negative employment effects.Recent U.S. proposals to increase the federal minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $15 per hour have not yet come to fruition. One challenge in implementing minimum wage increases is estimating the potential effect on employment. Past increases in the federal minimum wage have been modest and are unlikely to provide much insight into employment effects. International experiences with large minimum wage increases may provide more insight by accounting for greater variation in firm exposure ...
Economic Review , Volume vol. 108 , Issue no. 2 , Pages 15

Speech
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 07.13.16 Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-07-13)
As an economist and policymaker, I appreciate hearing the perspectives of market and business economists. Just as the different views expressed by my colleagues around the monetary policy table help to inform my own policy views, the insights of economists like you help to shape my own economic outlook. The chance to hear perspectives from this side of the Pacific is particularly welcome at this time because we live in a global economy. Today, I will focus my remarks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. To help put the discussion into context, I will start with a brief overview of the ...
Speech , Paper 74

Briefing
Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mullin, John (2019-09)
Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue September

Journal Article
Introducing, Understanding, and Using the ICI 300 Peer Cities Identification Tool
Longworth, Susan; O'Dell, Mark; George, Taz (2016)
Municipalities, especially those that are mid-sized or smaller, often face significant challenges in providing services and amenities to meet the needs of their diverse and changing populations. Solutions are usually context-specific and must factor in larger demographic and economic trends, in order to be effective. And, yet, in spite of contextual differences, cities frequently have meaningful similarities. However, identifying peer cities is often informed more by conversation than by data or evidence.
Profitwise , Issue 4 , Pages 3-8

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations
Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio; Armantier, Olivier (2013-12-05)
In the previous two blog postings in this series, we described the goals, structure, and content of the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and presented some findings regarding inflation expectations. In this third posting, we focus on the labor market component of the SCE.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131205

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