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Discussion Paper
Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-10-08)
Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast, the U.S. population is rising at a 0.7 percent annual rate and the working-age population is rising at a 0.2 percent rate. So far, supporting the growing share of Japan’s population that is 65 and over has been the substantial increase in the share of working-age women entering the labor force. In contrast, U.S. labor force participation rates have been falling for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141008

Conference Paper
Jackson Hole 2021 - The Covid Shock and an Uneven Labor Market (Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle)
Şahin, Ayşegül (2021-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Briefing
Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mullin, John (2019-09)
Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue September

Report
Exploring causes of and responses to the opioid epidemic in New England
Sullivan, Riley; Manchester, Joyce (2019-05-01)
The opioid epidemic remains rampant in New England, where, from 2015 through 2017, more than 10,000 people died from opioid overdoses. In 2017, each of the six states experienced an overdose-death rate that was greater than the national average. Beyond causing a high number of deaths, the opioid epidemic is costing New England productive workers. People with the most severe problems stemming from opioid-use disorder tend to be in the 25?44 age group, but no one is immune. The epidemic affects people of every type?all ages and all races, men and women, residents of rural areas and of urban ...
New England Public Policy Center Policy Reports , Paper 19-2

Working Paper
Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2014-08-01)
As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-8

Newsletter
Did Covid-19 disproportionately affect mothers’ labor market activity?
Hu, Luojia; Aaronson, Daniel; Rajan, Aastha (2021-01-14)
School and day care center restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have presented enormous challenges to parents trying to juggle work with child-care responsibilities. Still, empirical evidence on the impact of pandemic-related child-care constraints on the labor market outcomes of working parents is somewhat mixed. Some studies suggest the pandemic had no additional impact on the labor supply of parents, while other studies show not only that it did but that the negative impact was disproportionately borne by working mothers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 450 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
Karahan, Fatih; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Pilossoph, Laura (2021-02-09)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the various measures put in place to contain it caused a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions for many workers and plunged the nation into recession. The unemployment rate increased dramatically during the COVID recession, rising from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April, accompanied by an almost three percentage point decline in labor force participation. While the subsequent labor market recovery in the aggregate has exceeded even some of the most optimistic scenarios put forth soon after this dramatic rise, the recovery has been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209c

Journal Article
Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-06)
Why did so many people retire during the pandemic?
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Labor market transitions and the availability of unemployment insurance
Bradbury, Katharine L. (2014-07-09)
Economists often expect unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to elevate unemployment rates because recipients may choose to remain unemployed in order to continue receiving benefits, instead of accepting a job or dropping out of the labor force. This paper uses individual data from the Current Population Survey for the period between 2005 and 2013 ? a period during which the federal government extended and then reduced the length of benefit availability to varying degrees in different states ? to investigate the influence of program parameters in the UI system on monthly transition rates of ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-2

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