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Working Paper
Intrinsic expectations persistence: evidence from professional and household survey expectations
This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the University of Michigan?s Survey Research Center survey of consumers, and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. It finds that the most robust feature of all of these expectations measures is that respondents inefficiently revise their forecasts, significantly underreacting to new information. As a consequence, revisions smooth through arriving information, and expectations forget past information at a rapid rate and appear to anchor to the unconditional mean or other ...