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Working Paper
Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices
Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, the trend toward increased synchronization has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across countries or cities. Theory and limited econometric evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more in-synch house price cycles ...
Discussion Paper
U.S. Monetary Policy as a Changing Driver of Global Liquidity
International capital flows channel large volumes of funds across borders to both public and private sector borrowers. As they are critically important for economic growth and financial stability, understanding their main drivers is crucial for both policymakers and researchers. In this post, we explore the evolving impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on global liquidity.
Discussion Paper
Will Capital Flows through Global Banks Support Economic Recovery?
While policymakers around the world have aggressively and swiftly reacted to the common negative economic shock from COVID-19, the timing and forms of policy responses in the economic recovery stage may be more geographically differentiated. The range in policy responses, along with variations in the financial health of banks, likely will affect the flow of international credit through global banks. In this post, we ask whether, based on historical precedent, global banks are likely to provide additional support to the economic recovery in the locations they serve.
Report
Banking across borders
The international linkages between banks play a crucial role in today?s global economy. Existing models explain these links on the basis of portfolio theory, in which banks diversify lending. These models have found only limited empirical support and do not speak to many relevant dimensions of the data. For example, they do not address heterogeneity in the degree to which banking sectors fund their foreign operations locally in foreign markets. This paper proposes an alternative theory to explain banking across borders that is based on elements of international trade theory. In the model, ...
Working Paper
Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios
How does sovereign risk affect investors' behavior? We answer this question using a novel database that combines sovereign default probabilities for 27 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We first show that changes in yields do not fully compensate investors for additional sovereign risk, so that bond funds reduce their exposure to a country's assets when its sovereign default risk increases. However, the magnitude of the response varies widely across countries. Fund managers aggressively reduce their exposure to high-debt ...
Report
The Global Credit Cycle
Do global credit conditions affect local credit and business cycles? Using a large cross-section of equity and corporate bond market returns around the world, we construct a novel global credit factor and a global risk factor that jointly price the international equity and bond cross-section. We uncover a global credit cycle in risky asset returns, which is distinct from the global risk cycle. We document that the global credit cycle in asset returns translates into a global credit cycle in credit quantities, with a tightening in global credit conditions predicting extreme capital flow ...