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Working Paper
Monetary Policy Implementation With an Ample Supply of Reserves
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kim, Kyungmin; Nosal, Ed; Afonso, Gara; Martin, Antoine; Potter, Simon M. (2020-01-02)
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-02

Working Paper
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2019-11-27)
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well as low U.S. real interest rates, along with a surge in global real economic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not only because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exchange rate, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in turn ...
Working Papers , Paper 1914

Speech
Interview with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
Bullard, James B. (2022-10-14)
Speech

Journal Article
The Unequal Effect of Interest Rates by Race, Gender
Puig, Aina (2022-08-01)
Household spending typically falls as interest rates rise, but the responses vary by race and gender. Data show that households with mortgages headed by white women cut their spending on durable goods about a quarter percentage point in the three years following a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates. This is a much larger reduction than for households with mortgages headed by white men or Black men or women. The differences highlight the challenge of understanding how policy interest rate changes affect a diverse population.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 19 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?
Bassetto, Marco (2019-07-25)
A policy of forward guidance has been suggested either as a form of commitment ("Odyssean") or as a way of conveying information to the public ("Delphic"). I analyze the strategic interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank can send messages to the public independently of its actions. In the absence of private information, the set of equilibrium payoffs is independent of the announcements of the central bank: forward guidance as a pure commitment mechanism is a redundant policy instrument. When private information is present, central bank ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-5

Speech
Bullard Talks about Policy Rate and “Soft Landing” Prospects with Wall Street Journal
Bullard, James B. (2023-01-18)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed his expectations for the policy rate and inflation and the prospects for a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy in a live interview with The Wall Street Journal.Bullard said that his policy rate projection included in the FOMC’s December Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, was for a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% at the end of 2023, which is slightly higher than the median projection. He cautioned that it’s not certain where the economy or inflation will be then.“The underlying judgment on my part is that inflation will probably ...
Speech

Working Paper
Cheap Talk and the Efficacy of the ECB’s Securities Market Programme: Did Bond Purchases Matter?
De Pooter, Michiel; Pruitt, Seth; Rebecca, DeSimone; Martin, Robert F. (2015-07-06)
In 2010, in response to an ever-worsening fiscal crisis, the ECB began purchasing sovereign debt from troubled euro-area countries through its Securities Market Programme (SMP). This program was designed to improve market functioning and restore the monetary transmission mechanism within the euro area. This paper does not test those ideals. Rather, we test whether SMP purchases systematically lowered peripheral yields and spreads. We find limited evidence of purchase effects but large announcement effects. In addition, on days in which the ECB was believed to have made large purchases, yields ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1139

Speech
Restoring price stability
Logan, Lorie (2023-02-14)
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered this address on Feb. 14, 2023, at Prairie View A&M University.
Speeches and Essays

Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Relationship Lending
Dempsey, Kyle; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-09-23)
Banks' loan pricing decisions reflect the fact that borrowers tend to have long-lasting relationships with lenders. Therefore, pricing decisions have an inherently dynamic component: high interest rates may yield higher static profits per loan, but in the long run they erode a banks' customer base and reduce future profitability. We study this tradeoff using a dynamic banking model which embeds lending relationships using deep habits (“customer capital”) and costs of adjusting loan portfolio composition. High customer capital raises the level and decreases the interest rate elasticity of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-033

Speech
The Theory of Average Inflation Targeting
Williams, John C. (2021-07-12)
Remarks at Bank of Israel/CEPR Conference on “Inflation: Dynamics, Expectations, and Targeting” (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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