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Working Paper
Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge ...
Newsletter
The economic impact of an influenza pandemic on the United States
They have been known to be deadly, disorderly, and expensive. Influenza pandemics occur 3 to 4 times every century, and many health experts believe another U.S. pandemic is unavoidable. How would a modern-day influenza pandemic affect the U.S. economy? Predictions include $700 billion in economic losses and a 5.5 % drop in GDP the year a severe pandemic occurs.
Report
Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933
We merge several historical data sets from Germany to show that influenza mortality in 1918-1920 is correlated with societal changes, as measured by municipal spending and city-level extremist voting, in the subsequent decade. First, influenza deaths are associated with lower per capita spending, especially on services consumed by the young. Second, influenza deaths are correlated with the share of votes received by extremist parties in 1932 and 1933. Our election results are robust to controlling for city spending, demographics, war-related population changes, city-level wages, and regional ...
Journal Article
All the City Was Dying
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919 was a major social and economic shock