Journal Article
Inflation may be the next dragon to slay
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2010-01)
Although some think it's too soon to worry about high inflation, there are risks for that to happen in the medium term. Besides the obvious risks, a new bubble might be brewing in asset prices as investors search for higher returns, and the gap between actual output and potential output might be smaller than most think.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 4-9

Speech
The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits
Dudley, William (2009)
Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Inflation-Indexed Securities and Inflation Risk Management Conference.
Speech , Paper 11

Working Paper
Reconciling VAR-based Forecasts with Survey Forecasts
Doh, Taeyoung; Smith, Andrew Lee (2018-12-01)
This paper proposes a novel Bayesian approach to jointly model realized data and survey forecasts of the same variable in a vector autoregression (VAR). In particular, our method imposes a prior distribution on the consistency between the forecast implied by the VAR and the survey forecast for the same variable. When the prior is placed on unconditional forecasts from the VAR, the prior shapes the posterior of the reduced-form VAR coefficients. When the prior is placed on conditional forecasts (specifically, impulse responses), the prior shapes the posterior of the structural VAR ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-13

Report
Real Interest Rates, Inflation, and Default
Kondo, Illenin O.; Perri, Fabrizio; Hur, Sewon (2018-12-12)
This paper argues that the comovement between inflation and economic activity is an important determinant of real interest rates over time and across countries. First, we show that for advanced economies, periods with more procyclical inflation are associated with lower real rates, but only when there is no risk of default on government debt. Second, we present a model of nominal sovereign debt with domestic risk-averse lenders. With procyclical inflation, nominal bonds pay out more in bad times, making them a good hedge against aggregate risk. In the absence of default risk, procyclical ...
Staff Report , Paper 574

Report
The term structure of inflation expectations
Wu, Hao; Adrian, Tobias (2009)
We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model not only to yields, but also to the yields' variance-covariance matrix, thus increasing identification power. We find that model-implied inflation expectations can differ substantially from break-even inflation rates when market volatility is high. Our model's ability to be updated weekly makes it ...
Staff Reports , Paper 362

Speech
Explaining dissent on the FOMC vote for Operation Twist (with reference to Jan Mayen Island, Paul Volcker and Thor’s Hammer)
Fisher, Richard W. (2011)
Remarks before the Dallas Assembly, Dallas, Texas, September 27, 2011 ; "Monetary policy cannot solve the problem of substandard economic performance unless it is complemented by fiscal policy and regulatory reform that encourages the private sector to put to work the affordable and abundant liquidity we are able to create as the nation?s monetary authority."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 95

Journal Article
A new approach to gauging inflation expectations
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2009-08)
This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest rates, particularly a short (one-month) rate, which is not readily available from the TIPS market. Calculations using the method suggest that longer-term inflation expectations remain near historic lows. Furthermore, the inflation-risk premium is also low, which in the model means that inflation is not ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2009 , Issue Aug , Pages 4

Working Paper
An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model
Durham, J. Benson (2006)
This paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three-factor affine term structure model to the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Although this particular application seems to produce expected real short rates and inflation rates that are somewhat static, there are theoretical advantages to calibrating the model to nominal and real yields separately. Moreover, the estimates correlate positively with back-of-the-envelope measures of the inflation risk premium. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-42

Report
The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits
Roush, Jennifer E.; Dudley, William; Ezer, Michelle Steinberg (2008)
Several studies have shown that, ex-post, the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has cost U.S. taxpayers money. We propose that evaluations of the TIPS program be more comprehensive and focus on the ex-ante costs of TIPS issuance versus nominal Treasury issuance and, especially when these costs are negligible, the more difficult-to-measure benefits of the program. Our study finds that the ex-ante costs of TIPS issuance versus nominal Treasury issuance are currently about equal and that TIPS provide meaningful benefits to investors and policymakers.
Staff Reports , Paper 353

Journal Article
Quantitative easing and money growth: potential for higher inflation?
Thornton, Daniel L. (2012)
The enormous quantity of excess reserves can create an even greater expansion in the money supply.>
Economic Synopses