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Journal Article
Bankers, regulators absorb lessons of Silicon Valley Bank failure as new tests emerge
Orrenius, Pia M. (2023-09-29)
Ben Munyan, director of supervisory policy in the Banking Supervision Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses the challenges the banking industry faces in an era of rapidly rising interest rates and how Texas institutions have fared.
Southwest Economy

Briefing
Relative Price Changes Are Unlikely to Account for Recent High Inflation
Wolman, Alexander L. (2022-03)
March 2021 marked the first month of the ongoing high inflation episode in the U.S. Last September, I analyzed the first five months of this episode through the lens of the distribution of price changes for all PCE components. A small fraction of expenditures accounted for much of the high inflation in those months. In this Economic Brief, I provide a related analysis and incorporate a new summary statistic for the distribution of relative price changes. In the last four months, high inflation has not been concentrated in a small fraction of expenditures, deviating from the relationship we ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 10

Journal Article
The Long-Run Costs of Higher Inflation
L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; DeLuca, Martin (2023-10-17)
This Economic Commentary provides an overview of several frictions and the channels through which they affect economic welfare under elevated trend inflation above 2 percent. These frictions, associated with financial transactions, price and wage stickiness, and cognitive limitations, suggest that inflation imposes significant costs on society. Higher inflation may lead to a steeper Phillips curve, a situation which increases the volatility of inflation and interest rates.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 17

Conference Paper
Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy : Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 27-29, 2015
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2015)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Newsletter
The Rise (and Fall) of Inflation During the Early 2020s
Ihrig, Jane E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Wolla, Scott A. (2023-08)
Inflation has been on many people’s minds. There are several measures of inflation available, and each one plays a role in providing a more complete understanding of inflation’s causes and effects. This Page One Economics® Econ Primer describes key measures of inflation, including the consumer price index, and how the Federal Open Market Committee pays particular attention to these measures as it makes policy decisions—adjusting its policy stance when necessary to move the economy toward maximum employment and price stability.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Discussion Paper
Measuring Price Inflation and Growth in Economic Well-Being with Income-Dependent Preferences
Lashkari, Danial (2024-01-08)
How can we accurately measure changes in living standards over time in the presence of price inflation? In this post, I discuss a novel and simple methodology that uses the cross-sectional relationship between income and household-level inflation to construct accurate measures of changes in living standards that account for the dependence of consumption preferences on income. Applying this method to data from the U.S. suggests potentially substantial mismeasurements in our available proxies of average growth in consumer welfare in the U.S.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240108

Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectations
Chiang, Yu-Ting; LaBelle, Jesse (2022-10-13)
The private sector may slightly underestimate the short-term impact of monetary policy surprises on inflation but may predict longer-term effects fairly well.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Death of the Phillips Curve?
Murphy, Anthony (2018-01-01)
Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves? the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs ? are low and have got a little flatter. For example, the recursive estimate of the unemployment coefficient in the core PCE Phillips Curve has fallen a little from -0.09 to -0.07 since the Great Recession. However, the decline is not statistically significant. Dynamic forecasts from the wage and price Phillips Curves estimated using data ...
Working Papers , Paper 1801

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

Working Paper
Inflation and the Size of Government
Han, Song; Mulligan, Casey B. (2001-11)
It is commonly supposed in public and academic discourse that inflation and big government are related. We show that economic theory delivers such a prediction only in special cases. As an empirical matter, inflation is significantly positively related to the size of government mainly when periods of war and peace are compared. We find a weak positive peacetime time series correlation between inflation and the size of government and a negative cross-country correlation of inflation with non-defense spending.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-01

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