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Briefing
Do Black Households Face Higher and More Volatile Inflation?
Inflation affects different households in different ways. I use detailed data on spending in retail outlets by Black and White households in the U.S. and study the racial inflation disparity. I find that Black households experienced slightly higher and significantly more volatile inflation in consumer goods from 2004 to 2020 compared to White households. More than two-thirds of the difference in inflation volatility can be explained by the fact that Black households are disproportionately more likely to consume goods with volatile prices.
Briefing
A Closer Look at Japan's Rising Consumption Tax
Japan plans to raise its national consumption tax next week from 8 percent to 10 percent. Some commentators and economists have blamed previous consumption tax increases for causing recessions in 1997 and 2014, but little statistical analysis has been published to support or refute such claims. This Economic Brief highlights new evidence that significant changes in Japan's household consumption behavior did in fact coincide with the 1997 tax hike.
Journal Article
Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook
Forecasts for weaker U.S. GDP growth in 2023 and uncertainty over high inflation contrast sharply with strong labor market conditions and household consumption.
Journal Article
Disparities in COVID-19’s Impact on Employment and Household Consumption
This article investigates the socio-demographic differences in household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic regarding employment and consumption. We find that the significant racial disparities in employment observed during the pandemic can be explained, in part, by differences in household income, composition, education, and occupational sorting. Nonetheless, we document pervasive racial, income, and educational gradients when focusing on household food insecurity and individuals' reliance on social insurance programs and other government assistance during the pandemic. Overall, our results ...
Newsletter
Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession
The Covid-19 public health crisis has sharply reduced the earnings of millions of U.S. households, following the severe curtailment of economic activity needed to contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, households continue to confront their ongoing financial obligations. The ability of households to manage these obligations has important consequences for the speed at which the U.S. economy can recover from the current crisis. Households that are wiped out financially in the coming months will not be in a position to strongly resume spending once the virus containment issues have passed. ...