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Speech
The Fed’s Balance Sheet: The 37th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference
Harker, Patrick T. (2019-05-06)
Fed?s Harker on Unwinding: ?Walk, Don?t Run?. A slow and steady approach to unwinding the Fed?s balance sheet is Philadelphia Fed President Patrick T. Harker?s preference. ?So in metaphorical terms, it is a dark and stormy night, to quote Peanuts, and we are walking in the direction of a wall,? he told a conference audience. "In that situation, most of us would give the advice of ?walk, don?t run.??
Speech , Paper 165

Discussion Paper
Firm-Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause
di Giovanni, Julian (2020-02-13)
Large firms play an integral role in aggregate economic activity owing to their size and production linkages. Events specific to these large firms can thus have significant effects on the macroeconomy. Quantifying these effects is tricky, however, given the complexity of the production process and the difficulty in identifying firm-level events. The recent pause in Boeing’s 737 MAX production is a striking example of such an event or “shock” to a large firm. This post applies a basic framework that is grounded in economic theory to provide a back-of-the envelope calculation of how the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200213

The COVID-19 Recession in Historical Perspective
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés; Belmudes, Lucas (2020-11-12)
How severe is the COVID-19 recession across the globe? An analysis compares GDP growth forecasts for 2020 with historical growth rates for 155 countries.
On the Economy

Report
Newer need not be better: evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators using nighttime lights
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2016-06-01)
Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose measurement error is plausibly independent of the errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin 2016). We employ this insight to find out which vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) and of the World Development Indicators (WDI) better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of the PWT do not necessarily dominate their predecessors in terms of explaining nighttime lights (and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 778

How to Achieve a V-Shaped Recovery amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Wen, Yi; Reinbold, Brian (2020-05-29)
Contrasting the Great Depression and Great Recession recoveries helps show how GDP levels and growth rates can respond to different levels of policy responses.
On the Economy

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Arbogast, Iris; Wen, Yi (2020-11-16)
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth
Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2017-03)
Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to improve the seasonal adjustment of data back to 2012. I show that residual seasonality in GDP growth remains even after these adjustments, has been a longer-term phenomenon, and is particularly noticeable in the 1990s. The size of this residual seasonality is economically meaningful and has the ability to change the ...
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Newsletter
Data Units in FRED®
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2021-11)
This Page One Economics Data Primer describes the range of data units available in FRED, including their common use and interpretation, that help reveal the story behind the numbers.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Journal Article
The Fog of Numbers
Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Jordà, Òscar; Merrill, Colton; Kouchekinia, Noah (2020-07-15)
In times of economic turbulence, revisions to GDP data can be sizable, which makes conducting economic policy in real time during a crisis more difficult. A simple model based on Okun’s law can help refine the advance data release of real GDP growth to provide an improved reading of economic activity in real time. Applying this to data from the Great Recession explains some of the massive GDP revisions at that time. This could provide a guide for possible revisions to GDP releases during the current coronavirus crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 20 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Real-time performance of GDPplus and alternative model-based measures of GDP: 2005—2014
Stark, Tom (2014-11)
Like most macroeconomic variables, real gross domestic product is subject to measurement error. Because the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis lacks complete information at the time it publishes its initial GDP estimates, revisions are often substantial. Analysts concerned about the accuracy of these early estimates for expenditure GDP could focus instead on gross domestic income, the BEA?s measure of U.S. output on the income side of the national accounts. Conceptually, GDP on the expenditure side should equal GDP on the income side, and there should be no choice to make between the two ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Nov

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