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Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Koşar, Gizem; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-05-26)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Working Paper
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?
Altig, David E.; Auerbach, Alan J.; Higgins, Patrick C.; Koehler, Darryl; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Leiseca, Michael; Terry, Ellie; Ye, Victor (2019-04-01)
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-7

Working Paper
Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
Melosi, Leonardo; Faccini, Renato; Bianchi, Francesco (2020-05-12)
The COVID pandemic hit the US economy at a time in which the ability of policymakers to react to adverse shocks is greatly limited. The current low interest rate environment limits the Federal Reserve's ability to stabilize the economy, while the large public debt curtails the efficacy of fiscal interventions by inducing expectations of costly fiscal adjustments. A solution to this impasse is a coordinated fiscal and monetary strategy aiming at creating a controlled rise of inflation to wear away a targeted fraction of debt. Under our coordinated strategy, the fiscal authority introduces an ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-13

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-10-14)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock led to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Working Paper
Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero
Waki, Yuichiro; Braun, R. Anton; Korber, Lena Mareen (2012)
Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian (NK) literature is that the answer to this question is yes. Evidence presented here suggests that the NK model's implications for fiscal policy at the zero bound may not be all that different from its implications for policy away from it. For a range of empirically relevant parameterizations, employment increases when the labor tax rate is cut and the government purchase multiplier is less than 1.05.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-05

Working Paper
The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: evidence from military spending panel data
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2016-10-01)
Using panel data on military spending for 125 countries, we document new facts about the effects of changes in government purchases on the real exchange rate, consumption, and current accounts in both advanced and developing countries. While an increase in government purchases causes real exchange rates to appreciate and increases consumption significantly in developing countries, it causes real exchange rates to depreciate and decreases consumption in advanced countries. The current account deteriorates in both groups of countries. These findings are not consistent with standard ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-14

Speech
An Update on the Economy and the Main Street Lending Program
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-06-19)
Today I would like to speak with you about the pandemic, its effects on the economy, the implications for Federal Reserve policymaking, and some of the steps that the Fed is taking to address the crisis and mitigate its financial impact on American households and businesses.
Speech

Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo (2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160603

Discussion Paper
The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inequality
Del Negro, Marco; Dogra, Keshav; Pilossoph, Laura (2022-01-06)
How does accounting for households’ heterogeneity—and in particular inequality in income and wealth—change our approach to macroeconomics? What are the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on inequality, and what did we learn in this regard from the COVID-19 pandemic? What are the implications of inequality for the transmission of monetary policy, and its ability to stabilize the economy? These are some of the questions that were debated at a recent symposium on “Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy” organized by the new Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220106

Working Paper
Schools and Stimulus
Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill (2015-03-11)
This paper analyzes the impact of the education funding component of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the Recovery Act) on public school districts. We use cross- Sectional differences in district-level Recovery Act funding to investigate the program's impact on staffing, expenditures and debt accumulation. To achieve identification, we use exogenous variation across districts in the allocations of Recovery Act funds for special needs students. We estimate that $1 million of grants to a district had the following effects: expenditures increased by $570 thousand, district ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-4

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