Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 65.
(refine search)
Journal Article
The Long-Run Costs of Higher Inflation
L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; DeLuca, Martin
(2023-10-17)
This Economic Commentary provides an overview of several frictions and the channels through which they affect economic welfare under elevated trend inflation above 2 percent. These frictions, associated with financial transactions, price and wage stickiness, and cognitive limitations, suggest that inflation imposes significant costs on society. Higher inflation may lead to a steeper Phillips curve, a situation which increases the volatility of inflation and interest rates.
Economic Commentary
, Volume 2023
, Issue 17
Working Paper
The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening
Caldara, Dario; Ferrante, Francesco; Iacoviello, Matteo; Prestipino, Andrea; Queraltó, Albert
(2023-11-29)
We use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-border transmission of monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that historical episodes of synchronous tightening are associated with tighter financial conditions and larger effects on economic activity than asynchronous ones. In the model, a sufficiently large synchronous tightening can disrupt intermediation of credit by global financial intermediaries causing large output losses and an increase in sacrifice ratios, that is, output lost for a given ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1384
Working Paper
House prices, heterogeneous banks and unconventional monetary policy options
Smith, Andrew Lee
(2014-10-01)
This paper develops a nancial mechanism which integrates housing and the real econ- omy through housing-secured debt. In this environment, movements in home prices are ampli ed through both borrowers and banks' balance sheets, leading to a self-reinforcing credit/liquidity crunch. When placed within a traditional business cycle model, this - financial structure quantitatively captures empirical relationships the traditional nancial accelerator mechanism struggles to explain and the qualitative predictions of the model are consistent with dynamic responses from a VAR. The model provides a ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 14-12
Report
Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Queraltó, Albert
(2022-05-01)
Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1016
Working Paper
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed
Lubik, Thomas A.; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Schwartzman, Felipe
(2014-03-01)
Beginning in the mid-1980s, the nature of U.S. business cycles changed in important ways, as made evident by distinctive shifts in the comovement and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates. These include labor productivity, hours, output, and inventories. Unlike the widely documented change in absolute volatility over that period, known as the Great Moderation, these shifts in comovement and relative volatilities persist into the Great Recession. To understand these changes, we exploit the fact that inventory data are informative about sources of business cycles. Specifically, they ...
Working Paper
, Paper 14-6
Working Paper
Why Does Structural Change Accelerate in Recessions? The Credit Reallocation Channel.
Howes, Cooper
(2020-11-02)
The decline of the U.S. manufacturing share since 1960 has occurred disproportionately during recessions. Using evidence from two natural experiments—the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and U.S. interstate banking deregulation in the 1980s—I document a role for credit reallocation in explaining this phenomenon. Specifically, I show that losing access to credit disproportionately hurt manufacturing firms, and that the creation of new credit disproportionately benefited nonmanufacturing firms. These results arise endogenously from a model with technology-driven structural change and ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 20-17
Report
Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Queraltó, Albert
(2022-05-01)
Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1016
Working Paper
Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
Howes, Cooper
(2021-08-27)
While investment in most sectors declines in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, investment in the manufacturing sector increases. Using manually digitized aggregate income and balance sheet data for the universe of U.S. manufacturing firms, I show this increase is driven by the types of firms that are least likely to be financially constrained. A two-sector New Keynesian model with financial frictions can match these facts; unconstrained firms are able to take advantage of the decline in the user cost of capital caused by the monetary contraction, while constrained firms are ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 21-06
Working Paper
Bank Incentives and the Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
Joaquim, Gustavo; Netto, Felipe
(2021-10-01)
We assess the role of banks in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and unprecedented small-business support program instituted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. In 2020, the PPP administered more than $525 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. First, we provide empirical evidence of heterogeneity in the allocation of PPP loans. Firms that were larger and less affected by the COVID-19 crisis received loans earlier, even in a within-bank analysis. Second, we develop a model of PPP allocation through banks that is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-15
Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
Houssa, Romain; Mohimont, Jolan; Otrok, Christopher
(2022-12-17)
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models. We develop a small open-economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model describing three endogenous channels that capture spillovers from the world to a commodity exporter: a world commodity price channel, a domestic commodity supply channel and a financial channel. We estimate our model with Bayesian methods on two commodity-exporting SOEs, namely Canada and South Africa. In addition to explaining international business cycle synchronization, the new model ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 419
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 20 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 15 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 6 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 4 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 1 items
show more (7)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Working Papers 16 items
International Finance Discussion Papers 11 items
Staff Reports 11 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 9 items
Liberty Street Economics 4 items
Research Working Paper 3 items
Working Paper 3 items
Staff Report 2 items
Working Paper Series 2 items
Current Policy Perspectives 1 items
Economic Commentary 1 items
FRB Atlanta Working Paper 1 items
Globalization Institute Working Papers 1 items
show more (8)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
FILTER BY Author
Queraltó, Albert 14 items
Akinci, Ozge 8 items
Ferrante, Francesco 8 items
Caldara, Dario 7 items
Iacoviello, Matteo 7 items
Prestipino, Andrea 7 items
Leibovici, Fernando 5 items
Joaquim, Gustavo 4 items
Del Negro, Marco 3 items
Fuentes-Albero, Cristina 3 items
Ahmed, Shaghil 2 items
Cai, Michael 2 items
Chiang, Yu-Ting 2 items
Eslami, Keyvan 2 items
Gelain, Paolo 2 items
Giannoni, Marc 2 items
Gupta, Abhi 2 items
Howes, Cooper 2 items
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem 2 items
Kohn, David 2 items
Li, Pearl 2 items
Melcangi, Davide 2 items
Netto, Felipe 2 items
Phan, Toan 2 items
Phelan, Tom 2 items
Szkup, Michal 2 items
Żoch, Piotr 2 items
Altinoglu, Levent 1 items
Arellano, Cristina 1 items
Bai, Yan 1 items
Banerjee, Ryan N. 1 items
Blickle, Kristian S. 1 items
Bocola, Luigi 1 items
Choi, Dong Beom 1 items
De Paoli, Bianca 1 items
DeLuca, Martin 1 items
Doniger, Cynthia L. 1 items
Duca, John V. 1 items
Eisenbach, Thomas M. 1 items
Furlanetto, Francesco 1 items
García-Santana, Manuel 1 items
Graczyk, Andrew 1 items
Hasegawa, Raiden B. 1 items
Houssa, Romain 1 items
Ikeda, Daisuke 1 items
Ippolito, Filippo 1 items
Jeenas, Priit 1 items
Kay, Benjamin S. 1 items
Kehoe, Patrick J. 1 items
Kroeger, Alexander 1 items
L'Huillier, Jean-Paul 1 items
Liu, Zheng 1 items
Lorusso, Marco 1 items
Lubik, Thomas A. 1 items
Miao, Jianjun 1 items
Midrigan, Virgiliu 1 items
Mohimont, Jolan 1 items
Morais, Bernardo 1 items
Moral-Benito, Enrique 1 items
Moszkowski, Erica 1 items
Occhino, Filippo 1 items
Otrok, Christopher 1 items
Pastorino, Elena 1 items
Pijoan-Mas, Josep 1 items
Sanjani, Marzie 1 items
Sarkar, Asani 1 items
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. 1 items
Sbordone, Argia M. 1 items
Schorfheide, Frank 1 items
Schwartzman, Felipe 1 items
Siemer, Michael 1 items
Smith, Andrew Lee 1 items
Spiegel, Mark M. 1 items
Tambalotti, Andrea 1 items
Tito, Maria D. 1 items
Villa, Alessandro 1 items
Wang, J. Christina 1 items
Wang, Pengfei 1 items
Wang, Ruoying 1 items
Wiczer, David 1 items
Winkler, Fabian 1 items
Yorulmazer, Tanju 1 items
Zha, Tao 1 items
Zhang, Jingyi 1 items
di Giovanni, Julian 1 items
show more (80)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
E32 30 items
E44 30 items
C33 8 items
E24 7 items
F42 7 items
E52 6 items
F41 6 items
G01 6 items
G32 6 items
H81 5 items
J21 5 items
C11 4 items
F1 4 items
F4 4 items
G28 4 items
C13 3 items
E22 3 items
G12 3 items
L25 3 items
C32 2 items
C51 2 items
C63 2 items
E00 2 items
E2 2 items
E23 2 items
E43 2 items
E58 2 items
E6 2 items
E62 2 items
F32 2 items
F44 2 items
G11 2 items
G15 2 items
G33 2 items
H3 2 items
H6 2 items
O1 2 items
C52 1 items
C53 1 items
C54 1 items
C67 1 items
D63 1 items
D83 1 items
E10 1 items
E13 1 items
E21 1 items
E27 1 items
E2;E5 1 items
E3 1 items
E31 1 items
E37 1 items
E50 1 items
E51 1 items
E61 1 items
F00 1 items
F12 1 items
F14 1 items
F34 1 items
F38 1 items
G1 1 items
G10 1 items
G20 1 items
G21 1 items
G23 1 items
G24 1 items
G30 1 items
H24 1 items
H25 1 items
H30 1 items
J20 1 items
K11 1 items
N12 1 items
O11 1 items
O40 1 items
O47 1 items
Q35 1 items
Q43 1 items
R30 1 items
show more (73)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
financial frictions 65 items
Monetary Policy 13 items
Inflation 8 items
International Spillovers 8 items
Open Economy Macroeconomics 7 items
Panel Data Estimation 7 items
Paycheck Protection Program 5 items
DSGE models 5 items
Great Recession 5 items
U.S. monetary policy spillovers 5 items
credit constraints 5 items
small business lending 5 items
COVID-19 4 items
heterogeneous firms 4 items
international trade 4 items
Bayesian methods 3 items
financial shocks 3 items
structural breaks 3 items
currency premium 3 items
employment 3 items
reallocation 3 items
Bayesian estimation 2 items
Dynamic programming 2 items
Great Inflation 2 items
Great Moderation 2 items
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 2 items
Unconventional Monetary Policy 2 items
financial spillovers 2 items
fiscal policy 2 items
global financial cycle 2 items
heterogeneous agents 2 items
immoderation 2 items
intermediary asset pricing 2 items
liquidity 2 items
risk premia 2 items
small open economy 2 items
time-varying uncertainty 2 items
welfare 2 items
Adaptive expectations 2 items
Asset Pricing 2 items
Business Cycles 2 items
Housing 2 items
Learning 2 items
Misallocation 2 items
Rational bubbles 2 items
Real-time Forecasts 2 items
Shadow Banking 2 items
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Condition 2 items
Bank Runs 1 items
Bayesian 1 items
CARES Act 1 items
Capital flows 1 items
Credit network 1 items
Cross Section of Returns 1 items
DSGE 1 items
Dynamic Capital Structure 1 items
Expectations 1 items
External validation 1 items
Financial Crises 1 items
Firm heterogeneity 1 items
Income Support 1 items
Input-output network 1 items
Inventories 1 items
Investment Wedge 1 items
Investments 1 items
Kurzarbeit 1 items
Leverage 1 items
Markov chain approximation 1 items
New Keynesian models 1 items
Numerical methods 1 items
Phillips curve 1 items
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) 1 items
Sovereign debt crises 1 items
Structural Change 1 items
Survey Data 1 items
Survey Forecasts 1 items
Tax reform 1 items
Trade credit 1 items
accelerated depreciation 1 items
aggregate productivity 1 items
arbitrage 1 items
balance-sheet effects 1 items
bankruptcy laws 1 items
bitcoin 1 items
capital accumulation 1 items
changes in cyclical volatilities 1 items
commodities 1 items
countercyclical fiscal policy 1 items
country risk premium 1 items
credit boom 1 items
credit rationing 1 items
credit supply 1 items
cutoff productivity 1 items
endogenous TFP 1 items
export decisions 1 items
export dynamics 1 items
financial conditions 1 items
financial crisis 1 items
financial distress 1 items
financial intermediation 1 items
firm entry 1 items
firm exit 1 items
firm financing 1 items
forecasting 1 items
global imbalances 1 items
government procurement 1 items
house prices 1 items
income distribution 1 items
inequality 1 items
interest deductibility 1 items
international business cycles 1 items
large devaluations 1 items
linear prediction pools 1 items
liquidity constraints 1 items
monetary policy transmission 1 items
oil price shocks 1 items
output gap 1 items
precautionary savings 1 items
productivity 1 items
real estate collateral 1 items
regulation 1 items
slow recovery 1 items
small business 1 items
start-ups 1 items
tax multiplier 1 items
working capital 1 items
show more (148)
show less