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Speech
Desk Operations: The New Normal
Logan, Lorie (2021-04-08)
Remarks at the Annual Primary Dealer Meeting (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-11-08)
This paper argues that one cannot precisely estimate the persistence of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effects, especially with short samples and few observations. To make this point, we illustrate that the most influential model on the topic exhibits structural instability, and sensitivity to specification and outliers that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted models that respect more plausible asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. Estimates of the dynamic effects of shocks should respect the limited predictability in asset ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-04

Working Paper
The FOMC's Committee on the Directive: Behind Volcker's New Operating Procedures
Burk, Nicholas A.; Small, David H. (2022-09-30)
On October 6, 1979, Chairman Volcker announced that the Federal Reserve was embarking on a new, forceful, and ultimately successful campaign to lower the rampant inflation of that time. At the center of this campaign were new operating procedures for conducting monetary policy—procedures that focused daily open market operations on controlling the quantity of monetary reserves and the quantity of nonborrowed reserves in particular. This was a dramatic shift from the prior focus on targeting the federal funds rate. These new operating procedures were preceded by well over a decade of work ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-063

Discussion Paper
The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff: The Role of Levered NBFIs and Households
Cipriani, Marco; Clouse, James A.; Logan, Lorie; Martin, Antoine; Riordan, Will (2022-04-12)
In a Liberty Street Economics post that appeared yesterday, we described the mechanics of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet “runoff” when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by banks and money market funds (MMFs). The same mechanics would largely hold true when mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are purchased by banks. In this post, we show what happens when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by levered nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—such as hedge funds or nonbank dealers—and by households.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220412

Working Paper
Even Keel and the Great Inflation
Mukherjee, Sanchita; Humpage, Owen F.; Consolvo, Victoria (2020-10-23)
During the early part of the Great Inflation (1965-1975), the Federal Reserve undertook even-keel operations to assist the US Treasury’s coupon security sales. Accordingly, the central bank delayed any tightening of monetary policy and permanently injected reserves into the banking system. Using real-time Taylor-type and McCallum-like reaction functions, we show that the Fed routinely undertook these operations only when it was otherwise tightening monetary policy. Using a quantity-equation framework, we show that the Federal Reserve’s even-keel actions added approximately one percentage ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-33

Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk
Wall, Larry D. (2021-11-08)
The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 13

Newsletter
Understanding the Demand for Currency at Home and Abroad
Paulson, Anna L.; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Haasl , Thomas (2018)
Currency is traditionally the largest liability of a central bank and today accounts for 36% of the Federal Reserve?s liabilities, or $1.59 trillion.1 The Fed supplies currency to meet demand, so changes in the demand for currency will be an important determinant of how the Fed?s balance sheet evolves in the future. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we examine currency demand around the world and over time to learn about the range of possibilities for how U.S. currency demand might change. We then project currency demand over the next decade in several illustrative scenarios.
Chicago Fed Letter

Speech
Restoring price stability
Logan, Lorie (2023-02-14)
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered this address on Feb. 14, 2023, at Prairie View A&M University.
Speeches and Essays

Discussion Paper
A Closer Look at the Fed’s Balance Sheet Accounting
Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Leonard, Deborah; Martin, Antoine (2017-08-04)
An earlier post on how the Fed changes the size of its balance sheet prompted several questions from readers about the Federal Reserve’s accounting of asset purchases and the payment of principal by the Treasury on Treasury securities owned by the Fed. In this post, we provide a more detailed explanation of the accounting rules that govern these transactions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170804

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