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Speech
A Diligent Return to Price Stability
Last week, the FOMC raised its target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. We also indicated that we anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. Given the level and persistence of inflation, the journey back to 2 percent inflation will likely take some time. The FOMC is also continuing the process of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet by allowing assets to roll off, which also helps to firm the stance ...
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Speech
Bullard Discusses Disinflation, Rate Increases and Economic Resilience on CNBC
During an appearance on CNBC, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed disinflation, the federal funds rate and the resilience of the U.S. economy. To help curb inflation, Bullard said his target federal funds rate would be 5 3/8%. The target range for the rate currently is 4.5% to 4.75%.“I think we can get disinflation with a strong labor market, but we'll have to be credible in our policy and we'll have to react to the data as it comes up,” Bullard said.Bullard said the U.S. economy might be more resilient than financial markets thought six to eight weeks ago, and he expects ...
Speech
Bullard Discusses Inflation, Rate Increases and Economic Growth on CNBC
During an appearance on CNBC, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard offered his perspective on inflation, the federal funds rate and the U.S. economy.While acknowledging that the U.S. had two quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product (GDP), Bullard said that with all the job growth in the first half of this year, it’s hard to say there was a recession. And he said he expects third-quarter GDP growth to be reasonably good.“I think we’ll get positive GDP growth in the second half” of the year, he said.On managing inflation, he reiterated his call to increase the federal funds ...
Journal Article
What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight
If the Federal Reserve had expected the upcoming inflation surge back in March 2021, would it have acted differently? A new method to tackle such “what if” questions suggests that it may have been preferable to only moderately raise the federal funds rate during 2021, even with perfect foresight. In that case, inflation would have been about 1 percentage point lower as of June 2022, while unemployment would be about 2 percentage points higher. This result reflects the importance of the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
Journal Article
Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
The Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and balance sheet policy means that monetary policy consists of more than changing the federal funds rate target. A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets can help assess the broader stance of monetary policy. This proxy measure shows that, since late 2021, monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate indicates. Tightening financial conditions are similar to what would be expected if the funds rate had exceeded 5¼% by September 2022.
Speech
Reflections on Phasing Policy Amidst (Pandemic) Uncertainty: the 2023 Goldman Lecture in Economics at Wellesley College
In her remarks, President Collins focuses on economic policymaking under uncertainty. She discusses the making of monetary policy in the current cycle, where the recent pandemic and its aftermath figure so prominently and create particular uncertainty. President Collins also offers some takeaways to students about learning and careers.
Speech
Perspectives on the Economy: Remarks at the Annual Convention of the Maine Bankers Association
Susan Collins shared her views about the economic outlook and monetary policy. Then she provided a few perspectives on banking in New England and in particular Maine – highlighting the importance of banks of all sizes to a vibrant, inclusive economy. She ended with a few points about the Fed’s work across the region, and the shared opportunities to collaborate in the public interest.
Speech
Bullard Discusses Labor Markets, U.S. Economy and Inflation on Wharton Business Radio
During an Oct. 21 interview on Wharton Business Radio, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy. He said strong labor markets are giving the Fed some leeway to fight inflation. He reiterated his view that the FOMC should get to a level of the federal funds rate that puts meaningful downward pressure on inflation. Bullard also discussed GDP growth in 2022, low productivity numbers, various measures of inflation, the yield curve inversion, and the slowdown in money growth
Speech
Monetary Policy: Progress Is Not Victory
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, The Economic Club of New York, New York, NY, October 5, 2023, 12 PM EDT