Search Results
Showing results 1 to 4 of approximately 4.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage
Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage in knowing the path of future monetary policy. We evaluate the Fed’s forecast advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed’s knowledge of the conditioning path. We develop two tests—an instrumental variable encompassing test and a path-dependent encompassing test—to equalize the Fed’s information set with the private sector’s. We find that, generally, the Fed does not encompass the private ...
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage
Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector for inflation, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage. We evaluate the Fed's forecast advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed's knowledge of future monetary policy. We develop two tests -- an instrumental variable encompassing test and a path-dependent encompassing test -- to equalize the Fed's information set with the private sector's. We find that Fed forecasts do not encompass those of the private sector when the latter has ...
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage
Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage in knowing the path of future monetary policy. We evaluate the Fed’s forecast advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed’s knowledge of the conditioning path. We develop two tests—an instrumental variable encompassing test and a path-dependent encompassing test—to equalize the Fed’s information set with the private sector’s. We find that, generally, the Fed does not encompass the private ...
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage
Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector for inflation, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage. We evaluate the Fed's forecast advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed's knowledge of future monetary policy. We develop two tests -- an instrumental variable encompassing test and a path-dependent encompassing test -- to equalize the Fed's information set with the private sector's. We find that Fed forecasts do not encompass those of the private sector when the latter has ...