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Working Paper
Climate Shocks in the Anthropocene Era: Should Net Domestic Product Be Affected by Climate Disasters
The monetary costs of weather and climate disasters in the U.S. have grown rapidly from 1980 to 2022, rising more than 5 percent in real terms annually. Much of this real growth in costs is likely due to climate change. Regardless of its cause, these costs imply a faster depreciation of real assets. We argue that the expected depreciation from these events could be included in the consumption of fixed capital, leading to lower levels, and slightly lower growth rates, for net domestic product (NDP). We use Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood regressions to estimate this expectation and to ...
Working Paper
Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation
We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk. We find that disaster risk and default risk together lead to slow post-disaster recovery and heightened borrowing costs. Calibrating the model to Mexico, we find that the increase in cyclone risk due to climate change leads to a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent 1% consumption drop. However, financial adaptation via catastrophe bonds and disaster insurance can reduce these losses by about 25%. Our study highlights the ...
Working Paper
Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters
I evaluate the effects of hurricanes of varying intensity on the financial condition of a typical resident in both affected and unaffected census tracts, where the degree of affect is determined by the relative location of a census tract?s boundary with buffers around the tracks of hurricane eyes that occurred in the years 2000-2014. The primary question in the article is whether financial vulnerability, or, alternatively, ?financial preparedness,? affects post-hurricane disaster financial outcomes. {{p}} I find that hurricanes tend to lower credit scores, for the most, but outcomes are far ...
Discussion Paper
The Path of Economic Recovery from Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy caused damage and disruption to a wide swath of the New York-New Jersey region. The high winds and storm surge resulted in significant physical damage to residential property, commercial real estate, and the power and transportation infrastructure. Everyday activities such as commuting, shopping, and traveling were impeded or in some cases prevented. As a number of communities across the region continue to cope with the damage and ongoing disruptions, there’s concern about if and when activity will return to normal.
Financial Hardship Following Hurricane Harvey
Financial constraints before the hurricane, homeownership status and the likelihood of having flood insurance altered the financial effects of flooding on families.
Journal Article
How Small Banks Deal with Large Shocks
After a natural disaster such as a hurricane, tornado, or flood, banks in the affected area experience a sharp rise in the demand for loans as property owners look to repair the damage. Recent research has focused on such events to study how small community banks adjust their typical way of doing business to respond to large shocks. The research finds that banks strategically adjust their business in three ways to meet the increased demand for capital. Two adjustments increase the funds available for lending, while one shifts lending from areas unaffected by the disaster to the affected area, ...