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Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models. We develop a small open-economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model describing three endogenous channels that capture spillovers from the world to a commodity exporter: a world commodity price channel, a domestic commodity supply channel and a financial channel. We estimate our model with Bayesian methods on two commodity-exporting SOEs, namely Canada and South Africa. In addition to explaining international business cycle synchronization, the new model ...
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on Stock Prices
Since the two countries are global suppliers of raw materials, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a commodity price shock. Which stocks were most sensitive to it?
Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness
Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
Discussion Paper
Reconsidering the Phase One Trade Deal with China in the Midst of the Pandemic
It may be hard to remember given the pandemic, but trade tensions between the United States and China eased in January 2020 with the inking of the Phase One agreement. Under the deal, China committed to a massive increase in its purchases of U.S. goods and services, with targets set for various types of products. At the time of the pact, the U.S. economy was operating near full capacity, and any increase in U.S. exports stemming from the pact would likely have resulted in only a small boost to growth. The environment is now starkly different, with the U.S. economy operating far below ...