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Journal Article
Discretion, rules and volatility - commentary
Becker, Robert A.
(1996-05)
Review
, Volume 78
, Issue May
, Pages 75-79
Journal Article
A progress report on business cycle models
McGrattan, Ellen R.
(1994-10)
This article reports the recent progress made by researchers trying to build business cycle models that can reliably reproduce aggregate U.S. time series. The article first describes some features of the U.S. data that the models are meant to reproduce. Then it describes a version of the standard business cycle model, along with the indivisible labor extension of that model, both of which assume that fluctuations in economic activity are caused only by shocks to technology. Finally, it describes a version of recent other extensions which assume that shocks to fiscal variables also contribute ...
Quarterly Review
, Volume 18
, Issue Fall
, Pages 2-16
Working Paper
Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions
Owyang, Michael T.; Francis, Neville; Jackson, Laura E.
(2013)
We consider the effect of some policies intended to shorten recessions and accelerate recoveries. Our innovation is to analyze the duration of the recoveries of various U.S. states, which gives us a cross-section of both state- and national-level policies. Because we study multiple recessions for the same state and multiple states for the same recession, we can control for differences in the economic conditions preceding recessions and the causes of the recessions when evaluating various policies. We find that expansionary monetary policy at the national level helps to stimulate the exit of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2013-032
Working Paper
Accounting for the Sources of Macroeconomic Tail Risks
Wang, Zhenting; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Atalay, Enghin
(2018-02-05)
Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth.
Working Papers
, Paper 18-8
Working Paper
What determines bilateral trade flows?
Baxter, Marianne; Kouparitsas, Michael A.
(2005)
This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of international trade, where "robustness" is tested using three popular empirical methods. The paper is frankly atheoretical: our goal is solely to establish statistically robust relationships. Along the way, however, we relate our results to the empirical results obtained by prior researchers and to the received theory of international trade. We find that robust variables include a measure of the scale of factor endowments; fixed exchange rates; the level of development; and current account restrictions. Variables that are ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-05-11
Report
Changes in the U.S. cycle: shifts in capital spending and balance sheet changes
Steindel, Charles
(1992)
Research Paper
, Paper 9224
Working Paper
Sorting by skill over the course of job search
Sysuyev, Roman; Lkhagvasuren, Damba; Kudlyak, Marianna
(2012)
We use novel high-frequency panel data on individuals' job applications from an online job posting engine to study (1) whether at the beginning of search job seekers with different levels of education (skill) apply to different jobs, and (2) how search behavior changes as search continues. First, we find that there is sorting by skill at the beginning of search. Second, as search continues, job seekers apply to different types of jobs than at the beginning of search. In particular, assuming that sorting at the beginning of search is positive, as search continues there is less sorting by ...
Working Paper
, Paper 12-03
Report
Non-convexities in quantitative general equilibrium studies of business cycles
Prescott, Edward C.
(2003)
This paper reviews the role of micro non-convexities in the study of business cycles. One important non-convexity arises because an individual can work only one workweek length in a given week. The implication of this non-convexity is that the aggregate intertemporal elasticity of labor supply is large and the principal margin of adjustment is in the number employed-not in the hours per person employed-as observed. The paper also reviews a business cycle model with an occasionally binding capacity constraint. This model better mimics business cycle fluctuations than the standard real business ...
Staff Report
, Paper 312
Journal Article
Are long expansions followed by short contractions?
Diebold, Francis X.
(1993-07)
Business Review
, Issue Jul
, Pages 3-11
Conference Paper
Discretion, rules and volatility - commentary
Cooper, Russell W.
(1996-05)
Proceedings
, Volume 78
, Issue May
, Pages 80-82
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