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Journal Article
Venezuela: the trouble with oil
Working Paper
Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela
Hoover and Perez (1999) advocate a constructive approach to data mining. The current paper identifies four pejorative senses of data mining and shows how Hoover and Perez's approach counters each. To assess the benefits of constructive data mining, the current paper applies a data-mining algorithm similar to Hoover and Perez's to a dataset for Venezuelan consumers' expenditure. The selected model is economically sensible and statistically satisfactory; and it illustrates how data can be highly informative, even with relatively few observations. Limitations to algorithmically based data mining ...
Working Paper
Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela
Starting from a theoretical model with optimizing economic agents, we develop a highly parsimonious econometric model of consumers' expenditure on non-durables and services in Venezuela for 1970-85. Disposable income, liquidity, and inflation determine expenditure in an economically sensible fashion. The empirical model is robust and has constant, well-determined parameter estimates. In specifying it, econometric methodology plays a fundamental role, and we address issues of empirical model design and evaluation, cointegration, exogeneity, policy analysis, and encompassing. Using the last ...
Working Paper
Financial innovation and the speed of adjustment of money demand: evidence from Bolivia, Israel, and Venezuela
Traditional studies of money demand for both developed and less developed countries have shown that there are periods of "missing money," that is, there is consistent overprediction of real balances. This paper uses cointegration techniques to study the effects of financial innovation on the demand for real balances in Bolivia, Israel, and Venezuela. The results show that financial innovation can account for the instability of money demand observed in these countries. In particular, I find that the long run demand for real balances shifted down. In addition, I show that the speed at which ...
Journal Article
Venezuela moves to resolve crisis