Working Paper
Financial market reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-09-08)
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to pre-war values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia-Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-032

Journal Article
The Russian Invasion, Oil and Gasoline Prices, and Recession
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-04-27)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has substantially increased commodity prices, increasing risk to global economic activity.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas
Neely, Christopher J.; Dunn, Jason (2022-11-17)
A shutoff of Russian natural gas to Europe will produce heterogenous effects that reflect local winter weather, national dependence on such flows, and policy responses.
Economic Synopses , Issue 29 , Pages 1-2

Speech
A Time of Uncertainty
Williams, John C. (2022-04-02)
Remarks at Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies 2022 Spring Symposium, Princeton, New Jersey.
Speech

The Arms Trade and Its Bearing on the Russia-Ukraine War
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Grittayaphong, Praew (2022-11-21)
The arms trade links nations through their security interests, and its current patterns may be complicating a political resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-10-21)
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war, and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to prewar values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia and Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 4 , Pages 266-296

Speech
Global Issues, Global Implications
Williams, John C. (2022-03-25)
Remarks at the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) Centenary Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
How the Russia-Ukraine War Helped Fuel Record Fertilizer Prices
Jenkins, Suzanne (2022-10-04)
The Russia-Ukraine war further tightened the global supply of fertilizer, pushing prices to record highs in March 2022 and causing concern for U.S. farmers.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
Cook, Thomas R.; Lusompa, Amaze; Nie, Jun (2022-11-04)
The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4