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Working Paper
Benchmarking Operational Risk Models
The 2004 Basel II accord requires internationally active banks to hold regulatory capital for operational risk, and the Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) requires banks to project operational risk losses under stressed scenarios. As a result, banks subject to these rules have measured and managed operational risk more rigorously. But some types of operational risk - particularly legal risk - are challenging to model because such exposures tend to be fat-tailed. Tail operational risk losses have significantly impacted banks' balance sheets and income ...
Working Paper
Predicting Operational Loss Exposure Using Past Losses
Operational risk models, such as the loss distribution approach, frequently use past internal losses to forecast operational loss exposure. However, the ability of past losses to predict exposure, particularly tail exposure, has not been thoroughly examined in the literature. In this paper, we test whether simple metrics derived from past loss experience are predictive of future tail operational loss exposure using quantile regression. We find evidence that past losses are predictive of future exposure, particularly metrics related to loss frequency.
Speech
Guiding Principles for Financial Regulation; Panel Remarks at \"The Future of Global Finance: Populism, Technology, and Regulation\" Conference, Columbia University, New York, NY
At times, the regulatory framework that has arisen since the global financial crisis can seem like the game of fizzbin (appeared in the original Star Trek TV Show) ? very complicated, seemingly without rationale, and constantly changing. In such an environment, sometimes it helps to take a step back and focus on some underlying principles that should serve as a foundation for any financial regulatory framework, and that can help guide any potential changes to strengthen the framework and promote cross-country harmonization.
Working Paper
Market Discipline in the Secondary Bond Market: The Case of Systemically Important Banks
We investigate the association between the yields on debt issued by U.S. systemically important banks (SIBs) and their idiosyncratic risk factors, macroeconomic factors, and bond features, in the secondary market. Although greater SIB risk levels are expected to increase debt yields (Evanoff and Wall, 2000), prevalence of government safety nets complicates the market discipline mechanism, rendering the issue an empirical exercise. Our main objectives are twofold. First, we study how bond buyers reacted to elevation of SIB-specific and macroeconomic risk factors over the recent business cycle. ...
Discussion Paper
A CCP Is a CCP Is a CCP
Central counterparties (CCPs) are an important part of contemporary financial market infrastructure. The orderly risk management operations and financial resilience of CCPs and other market infrastructures are essential for financial stability.Regulators and other policymakers face a major challenge constructing appropriate regulatory frameworks for central clearing, given unique features of CCP risk profiles and, in particular, the mutualization of default losses. While CCPs may have superficial similarities to other infrastructures and exposed to risks like those borne by banks and other ...