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Journal Article
The Philadelphia story: a new forecasting model
Several years ago, the Philadelphia Fed developed a small forecasting model for each of the three states in the Third Federal Reserve DistrictCPennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This article introduces a similar model that forecasts major economic variables for the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the city of Philadelphia. Read this article and find out what the model predicts for the metro area and the city
Working Paper
A Bayesian VAR forecasting model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area
Vector-autoregression (VAR) forecast models have been developed for many state economies, including the three states in the Third Federal Reserve District--Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. This paper extends that work by developing a Bayesian VAR forecast model for the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the city of Philadelphia.
Journal Article
Should Philadelphia's suburbs help their central city?
We end with the age-old debate of city vs. suburbs. The United States is unique in its commitment to local government as the primary provider of essential public services and in its use of local taxes as the primary means for paying for these services. The Philadelphia metropolitan area is typical of the U.S. pattern. But Philadelphia faces the burdens and responsibilities of all older central cities, including a higher proportion of poor residents than its surrounding suburbs. Such circumstances lead the city to impose higher taxes, but raising revenues through higher taxes becomes ...
Journal Article
City problems and suburban reactions
Journal Article
Has suburbanization diminished the importance of access to Center City?
Nine years ago, the Business Review examined the role that access to Center City Philadelphia played in people's choices about where to live and how to commute. Using 1980 census data, that analysis concluded that access to Center City by both car and public transportation shaped people's choices in important ways. But since 1980, the Philadelphia metropolitan area has undergone a great deal of change, including a decentralization of both population and employment. In this article, Dick Voith revisits the questions first posed almost a decade ago to see how employment and population shifts ...
Journal Article
Do you know how much money is in your public purse?
Journal Article
The downtown parking syndrome: does curing the illness kill the patient?
Consumers and businesses alike cite the lack of free parking as one of the major problems associated with working, playing, and shopping downtown. A shortage of parking spaces can also lead to higher prices for those parking slots available as well as violation of parking ordinances by frustrated citizens. In light of widespread concerns about parking downtown, should large cities adopt policies to encourage more parking in a central business district (CBD), or should they improve public transit as an alternative to driving? Cities must consider many factors before answering such questions. ...
Journal Article
De novo banking in the third district
Report
Why is automobile insurance in Philadelphia so damn expensive?
We document and attempt to explain the observation that automobile insurance premiums vary dramatically across local markets. We argue high premiums can be attributed to the large numbers of uninsured motorists in some cities, while at the same time, the uninsured motorists can be attributed to high premiums. We construct a simple noncooperative equilibrium model, where limited liability can generate inefficient equilibria with uninsured drivers and high, yet actuarially fair, premiums. For certain parameterizations, an optimal full insurance equilibrium and inefficient high price equilibria ...