Working Paper
Swedish intervention and the Krona float, 1993–2002
Humpage, Owen F.; Ragnartz, Javiera (2005)
Using a set of standard success criteria, we show that Riksbank foreign-exchange interventions between 1993 and 2002 lacked forecast value; that is, the observed number of successes was not significantly greater--and usually substantially smaller--than the number one would anticipate given the martingale nature of exchange-rate movements. Under some success criteria, the Riksbank exhibited negative forecast value, implying that the market could have profited by taking a position opposite that of the bank. Moreover, the likelihood of success was independent of such conditioning factors as the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0514