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Journal Article
From the classroom to the workplace. So where are the jobs?
Working Paper
The cyclicality of separation and job finding rates
This paper uses CPS gross flow data, adjusted for margin error and time aggregation error, to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Cyclical changes in the separation rate lead those of unemployment, while the job finding rate and unemployment move contemporaneously. Fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50 percent of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on how the data are detrended. The authors results suggest an important role for the separation rate in ...
Journal Article
Getting a jump on Texas employment revisions
Journal Article
The cyclicality of hires, separations, and job-to-job transitions
This paper measures the job-finding, separation, and job-to-job transition rates in the United States from 1948 to 2004. The job-finding and job-to-job transition rates are strongly procyclical and the separation rate is nearly acyclical, especially since 1985. The author develops a simple model in which unemployed workers search for jobs and employed workers search for better jobs. The model predicts that an increase in either the job-finding rate or the separation rate raises the job-to-job transition rate, which is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the available evidence. In ...
Journal Article
Research spotlight : Unemployment benefits and job searches
Related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2010/q3/research_spotlight_weblinks.cfm
Journal Article
Research spotlight: Are new graduates left behind in a recession?
Related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2012/q2-3/research_spotlight_weblinks.cfm
Working Paper
Exogenous vs. endogenous separation
This paper assesses how various approaches to modeling the separation margin affect the ability of the Mortensen-Pissarides job matching model to explain key facts about the aggregate labor market. Allowing for realistic time variation in the separation rate, whether exogenous or endogenous, greatly increases the unemployment variability generated by the model. Specifications with exogenous separation rates, whether constant or time-varying, fail to produce realistic volatility and productivity responsiveness of the separation rate and worker flows. Specifications with endogenous separation ...
Journal Article
Accounting for the jobless recoveries
Much has been made of the so-called jobless recovery of the past two business cycles?that is, their atypically weak employment growth early in the expansion phase. This Commentary examines the factors that account for this behavior, focusing on two key measures: the probabilities of job finding and job separation.
Working Paper
On-the-job search and labor market reallocation
This paper studies amplification of productivity shocks in labor markets through on-the-job-search. There is incomplete information about the quality of the employee-firm match which provides persistence in employment relationships and the rationale for on-the-job search. Amplification arises because productivity changes not only affect firms? probability of contacting unemployed workers but also of contacting already employed workers. Since higher productivity raises the value of all matches, even low quality matches become productive enough to survive in expansions. Therefore the measure of ...