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Working Paper
Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion
Luo, Yulei; Nie, Jun; Wang, Xiaowen; Young, Eric R. (2021-08-02)
We propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty due to ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain four facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously: (i) the high volatility of production relative to sales, (ii) the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, (iii) the positive correlation between sales and inventories, and (iv) the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. We find that the stock-out avoidance motive (Kahn 1987) ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-05

Journal Article
Has inventory volatility returned? A look at the current cycle
McConnell, Margaret M.; Kahn, James A. (2002-05)
The massive liquidation of inventories during the 2001 recession contrasts sharply with the more moderate inventory movements observed in recent decades. While the rundown might be seen as evidence that firms are not managing their inventories as effectively as some economists have claimed, a careful analysis of inventory behavior in 2001 suggests that during much of the recession, firms were successfully regulating their inventories to avoid a large buildup of excess stock.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue May

Speech
Regional economy and manufacturing update
Dudley, William (2010)
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 28

Journal Article
Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle
Filardo, Andrew J. (1995-04)
Inventories play an important role in business cycles. Inventory build-ups add momentum to the economy during expansions, while inventory liquidations sap economic strength during recessions. In addition, because inventory fluctuations are notoriously difficult to predict, they present considerable uncertainty in assessing the economic outlook.> The role of inventories in shaping the current outlook for the U.S. economy is particularly uncertain. In the early 1990s, inventory swings appeared less pronounced than usual, leading some analysts to conclude the business cycle might now be more ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q II , Pages 27-43

Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage
Leitner, Yaron; Bond, Philip (2013)
This paper supersedes Working Paper No. 12-8.> We study trade between an informed seller and an uninformed buyer who have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. We show that these inventories may lead to prices that increase even absent changes in fundamentals (a .run-up.), but may also make trade impossible (a .freeze.) and hamper information dissemination. Competition may amplify the run-up by inducing buyers to enter loss-making trades at high prices to prevent a competitor from purchasing at a lower price and releasing bad news about inventory values. Inventories ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-14

Journal Article
Evidence of improved inventory control
Bechter, Dan M.; Stanley, Stephen (1992-01)
Inventory data applied to a standard partial stock-adjustment model demonstrate that inventory control, defined by desired marginal inventory-sales ratios and speeds of adjustment, improved in the last decade or so, particularly in the manufacturing sector. In addition, the evidence suggests that, contrary to popular wisdom, the net effect of these changes in inventory control has been to increase the volatility of inventory investment in both the manufacturing and trade sectors.
Economic Review , Volume 78 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-12

Working Paper
Why are Inventory-Sales Ratios at U.S. Auto Dealerships so High?
Dunn, Wendy E.; Vine, Daniel J. (2016-05)
Motor vehicle dealerships in the United States tend to hold inventories equivalent to around 65 days? worth of sales, a relatively high level that has been nearly unchanged for 50 years. Despite playing a prominent role in the volatility of U.S. business cycles, very little is known about why the auto industry targets inventory stocks at such a high level. We use a panel of inventory and sales data from 41 vehicle brands over 30 years and the solutions to two well-known inventory planning problems to show that vehicle inventories appear to be related to (1) the size of dealership franchise ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-047

Working Paper
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed
Lubik, Thomas A.; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Schwartzman, Felipe (2014-03-01)
Beginning in the mid-1980s, the nature of U.S. business cycles changed in important ways, as made evident by distinctive shifts in the comovement and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates. These include labor productivity, hours, output, and inventories. Unlike the widely documented change in absolute volatility over that period, known as the Great Moderation, these shifts in comovement and relative volatilities persist into the Great Recession. To understand these changes, we exploit the fact that inventory data are informative about sources of business cycles. Specifically, they ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-6

Working Paper
Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior.
Schuh, Scott (1996)
This paper describes the finished goods inventory behavior of more than 700 U.S. manufacturing firms between 1985-93 using a new Census Bureau longitudinal data base. Three key results emerge. First, there is a broad mix of production-smoothing and production-bunching firms, with about two-fifths smoothing production. Second, firm-level inventory adjustment speeds are about an order of magnitude larger than aggregate adjustment speeds due to econometric aggregation bias. Finally, accounting for time variation in the inventory adjustment speed due to fluctuations in firm size improves the fit ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-46

Working Paper
Inventory accelerator in general equilibrium
Wen, Yi; Wang, Pengfei (2009)
We develop a general-equilibrium model of inventories with explicit micro-foundations by embedding the production-cost-smoothing motive (e.g., Eichenbaum, AER 1989) into an otherwise standard DSGE model. We show that firms facing idiosyncratic cost shocks have incentives to bunch production and smooth sales by carrying inventories. The optimal inventory target of a firm is derived explicitly. The model is broadly consistent with many of the observed stylized facts of aggregate inventory fluctuations, such as the procyclical inventory investment and the countercyclical inventory-sales ratio. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-010

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