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Working Paper
Does the choice of nominal anchor matter?
The conventional wisdom on nominal anchors is that exchange rate-based inflation stabilizations lead to economic booms while monetary-based stabilizations lead to recessions. This study finds strong evidence against this view. Rather than determining the path of economic growth, the choice of nominal anchor appears to be endogenously determined by the state of the economy. To peg or manage the exchange rate, a high level of international reserves is important, especially when a government?s credibility is low after a period of high inflation. After controlling for the level of international ...
Working Paper
Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help?
Several structural developments in the U.S. economy—including lower neutral interest rates and a flatter Phillips curve—have challenged the ability of the current monetary policy framework to deliver on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) dual-mandate goals. This paper explores whether makeup strategies, in which policymakers seek to stabilize average inflation around the inflation target over some horizon, could strengthen the FOMC’s ability to fulfill its dual mandate. The quantitative analysis discussed here suggests that credible makeup strategies may provide some moderate ...
Briefing
Detecting Inflation Instability
In a stable monetary policy regime, the share of relative price increases helps to explain monthly inflation fluctuations. We illustrate this regularity with U.S. data from January 1995 through February 2020, then we use it to evaluate whether the regime has remained stable during the pandemic period. From March 2021 to February 2022, the behavior of inflation and the share of relative price increases was inconsistent with the pre-pandemic regime. Recent data show some signs of a return to that regime.