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Journal Article
Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada
The output gap - the deviation of output from potential output - has played an important role in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada. This paper reviews the Bank of Canada's definition of potential output, as well as the use of the output gap in monetary policy. Using a real-time staff economic projection dataset from 1994 through 2005, a period during which the staff used the Quarterly Projection Model to construct economic projections, the authors investigate the relationship between shocks (data revisions or real-time projection errors) and revisions to projections of key ...
Journal Article
Commentary on Are good jobs disappearing in Canada?
Proceedings of a Conference Cosponsored by the Canadian Consulate General in New York, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the New York Association for Business Economics.
Journal Article
Are good jobs disappearing in Canada?
Based on their analysis of changes in the share of jobs falling in certain real wage categories over 1997-2004, the authors suggest that well-paid jobs ($25 an hour or more) are not disappearing in Canada. Morissette and Johnson also find little evidence that the relative importance of well-paid jobs has declined or that the relative importance of low-paid jobs (less than $10 hour) has risen over the past two decades.
Working Paper
Driving forces of the Canadian economy: an accounting exercise
This paper analyzes the Canadian economy for the post-1960 period. It uses an accounting procedure developed in Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2006). The procedure identifies accounting factors that help align the predictions of the neoclassical growth model with macroeconomic variables observed in the data. The paper finds that total factor productivity and the consumption-leisure trade-off?the productivity and labor factors?are key to understanding the changes in output, labor supply and labor productivity observed in the Canadian economy. The paper performs a decomposition of the labor ...