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Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation
This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Finally, we discuss policy options to mitigate these effects.
Working Paper
Money-Financed Fiscal Programs : A Cautionary Tale
A number of prominent economists and policymakers have argued that money-?nanced ?scal programs (helicopter drops) could be e?cacious in boosting output and in?ation in economies facing persistent economic weakness, very low in?ation, and signi?cant ?scal strains. We employ a fairly conventional macroeconomic model to explore the possible e?ects of such policies. While we do ?nd that money-?nanced ?scal programs, if communicated successfully and seen as credible by the public, could provide signi?cant stimulus, we underscore the risks that would be associated with such a program. These risks ...
Working Paper
Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information
I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. The model generates term premia that are on average positive with sizable countercyclical variation that arises endogenously. Importantly, demand shocks, in addition to supply shocks, play a key role in the dynamics of term premia. This is in sharp contrast to existing DSGE term structure models with perfect information, which tend to rely on large supply shocks to generate timevariation in yields and term ...