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Journal Article
The comparative growth performance of the U.S. economy in the postwar period
Productivity growth is the single most important determinant of improvements in a country's living standards over time. Accordingly, the U.S. productivity slowdown of the past two decades has caused great concern and sparked much debate. ; In this article, Mark A. Wynne argues that the problems associated with the U.S. slowdown may be overstated. Wynne shows that the rates of productivity growth experienced in the immediate postwar period were extraordinary in comparison with historical standards. Thus, some slowdown was probably unavoidable. U.S. productivity performance in comparison with ...
Journal Article
District economy to expand in 2005
Journal Article
Roundtable's Rx for the economy: first, do no harm
An overview of the January 24, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants discussed how longer-term structural adjustments taking place in many of the nation's industries may be restraining the recovery.
Journal Article
Economic recovery gains steam in Texas
Journal Article
Manufacturing lots of work for little profit
Working Paper
Predicting cycles in economic activity
Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real activity indicators. The models are estimated for eight countries, both individually and using a panel regression. Although the success of the models varies, they are all able to identify a significant number of recessionary periods correctly.
Working Paper
Does the Beige Book move financial markets?
About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.
Journal Article
The district economy continues to sail along