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Discussion Paper
Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-10-08)
Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast, the U.S. population is rising at a 0.7 percent annual rate and the working-age population is rising at a 0.2 percent rate. So far, supporting the growing share of Japan’s population that is 65 and over has been the substantial increase in the share of working-age women entering the labor force. In contrast, U.S. labor force participation rates have been falling for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141008

Discussion Paper
Diplomas to Doorsteps: Education, Student Debt, and Homeownership
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Gorton, Nicole; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-04-03)
Evidence overwhelmingly shows that the average earnings premium to having a college education is high and has risen over the past several decades, in part because of a decline in real average earnings for those without a college degree. In addition to high private returns, there are substantial social returns to having a well-educated citizenry and workforce. A new development that may have important longer-term implications for education investment and for the broader economy is a significant change in the financing of higher education. State funding has declined markedly over the past two ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170403

Discussion Paper
Are Economic Values Transmitted from Parents to Children?
Jeanne, Olivier; Cipriani, Marco (2014-01-06)
Economic research shows that differences in cultural traits and values—for example, trust, or the propensity to cooperate and not free-ride on others—are important determinants of economic outcomes, such as growth, economic and financial development, and international trade. It’s much less clear, however, where these differences in economic-relevant values come from. While economists generally assume that they’re transmitted from parents to children, the empirical evidence to this effect is almost nonexistent.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140106

Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
Armantier, Olivier; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio (2015-07-13)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150713a

Discussion Paper
When Women Out-Earn Men
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2015-08-05)
We often hear that women earn “77 cents on the dollar” compared with men. However, the gender pay gap among recent college graduates is actually much smaller than this figure suggests. We estimate that among recent college graduates, women earn roughly 97 cents on the dollar compared with men who have the same college major and perform the same jobs. Moreover, what may be surprising is that at the start of their careers, women actually out-earn men by a substantial margin for a number of college majors. However, our analysis shows that as workers approach mid-career, the wage premium that ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150805

Discussion Paper
College May Not Pay Off for Everyone
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2014-09-04)
In our recent Current Issues article and blog post on the value of a college degree, we showed that the economic benefits of a bachelor’s degree still far outweigh the costs. However, this does not mean that college is a good investment for everyone. Our work, like the work of many others who come to a similar conclusion, is based in large part on the empirical observation that the average wages of college graduates are significantly higher than the average wages of those with only a high school diploma. However, not all college students come from Lake Wobegon, where “all of the children ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140904b

Report
Getting ahead by spending more? Local community response to state merit aid programs
Roy, Joydeep; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Gorton, Nicole (2018-10-01)
In more than half of U.S. states over the past two decades, the implementation of merit aid programs has dramatically reduced net tuition expenses for college-bound students who attend in-state colleges. Although the intention of these programs was to improve access to enrollment for high-achieving students, it is possible that they had unanticipated effects. We analyze whether state funding for higher education and K-12 education changed as a result of program implementation, and whether local school districts attempt to counter any such changes. We employ two methodologies to study whether ...
Staff Reports , Paper 872

Discussion Paper
Understanding Earnings Dispersion
Karahan, Fatih (2015-11-02)
How much someone earns is an important determinant of many significant decisions over the course of a lifetime. Therefore, understanding how and why earnings are dispersed across individuals is central to understanding dispersion in a wide range of areas such as durable and non-durable consumption expenditures, debt, hours worked, and even health. Drawing on a recent New York Fed staff report "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risks?", this blog post investigates the nature of earnings inequality over a lifetime. It finds that earnings are subject ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151102

Discussion Paper
Waiting for Recovery: New York Schools and the Aftermath of the Great Recession
Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2013-09-23)
A key institution that was significantly affected by the Great Recession is the school system, which plays a crucial role in building human capital and shaping the country’s economic future. To prevent major cuts to education, the federal government allocated $100 billion to schools as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), commonly known as the stimulus package. However, the stimulus has wound down while many sectors of the economy are still struggling, leaving state and local governments with budget squeezes. In this post, we present some key findings on how ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130923a

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

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