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Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
di Giovanni, Julian; Hale, Galina (2020-11-01)
We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We then use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that up to 80 percent of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on average ...
Staff Reports , Paper 945

Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
Hur, Sewon; Carroll, Daniel R. (2020-06-22)
What are the distributional consequences of tariffs? We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their income, wealth, and labor skill. We increase tariffs by 5 percentage points and examine several budget-neutral fiscal policies for redistributing tariff revenue. Without redistribution, tariffs hurt all households, but higher tradables prices disproportionately harm the poor and the ensuing decline in the skill premium disproportionately harms the skilled. With redistribution, lowering the labor income tax leads to lower economic activity but ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-18

Working Paper
The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy
Caliendo, Lorenzo; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Parro, Fernando; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2014-08-06)
We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1119

Working Paper
Firms in international trade
Diez, Federico J.; Spearot, Alan C.; Mora, Jesse (2016-12-01)
Firms play a critical role in the global economy. In this paper, we survey the behavior of firms in the international economy, both in theory and in the data. We first summarize the key empirical facts that motivate the study of firms in trade. Then, we detail recent theoretical developments on the micro-foundations of firm behavior in an international context, focusing on how firms select into exporting, and how firms respond to international shocks. Finally, we turn to a ?real world,? empirically focused view of exporting, beginning with the growth dynamics of firms expanding to global ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-25

Working Paper
Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade
Gross, Till; Verani, Stéphane (2013)
There is growing empirical support for the conjecture that access to credit is an important determinant of firms' export decisions. We study a multi-country general equilibrium economy in which entrepreneurs and lenders engage in long-term credit relationships. Financial constraints arise as a consequence of financial contracts that are optimal under private information. Consistent with empirical regularities, the model implies that older and larger firms have lower average and more stable growth rates, and are more likely to survive. Exporters are larger, their survival in international ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2013-02

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage in Innovation and Production
Somale, Mariano A. (2017-05)
This paper develops a multi-country, general equilibrium, semi endogenous growth model of innovation and trade in which specialization in innovation and production are jointly determined. The distinctive element of the model is the ability of the agents to direct their research efforts to specific goods, in a context of heterogeneous innovation capabilities across countries and contemporaneous decreasing returns to R&D. The model features a two-way relationship between trade and technology absent in standard quantitative Ricardian trade models. I calibrate the model using a sample of 29 ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1206

Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2023-03-29)
We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 413

Journal Article
A Regional Look at U.S. International Trade
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2016)
Economic activity at the state level varies greatly across U.S. regions, with different states specializing in the production of particular goods and services. This heterogeneity in activity informs the geographic distribution of U.S. imports and exports. Using U.S. Census Bureau foreign trade statistics, the authors examine the distribution of U.S. international trade at the state level, controlling for commodities and major trading partners. They find that trade activity varies greatly from state to state and identify two factors affecting this pattern?proximity to a trading partner and ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-39

Working Paper
What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models
Sager, Erick; Jaravel, Xavier (2019-09-20)
This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-068

Working Paper
Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change
Sposi, Michael (2015-03-01)
I quantitatively examine the effects of location-and sector-specific productivity growth on structural change across countries from 1970-2011. The results shed new light on the ?hump shape" in industry's share in GDP across levels of development. There are two key features. First, otherwise identical changes in the composition of final demand translate differently into changes in the composition of value added because of systematic differences in sectoral linkages. Second, the mapping between sector-specific productivity and the composition of final demand systematically differs because of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 231

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