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Working Paper
Too Good to Be True? Fallacies in Evaluating Risk Factor Models
Robotti, Cesare; Gospodinov, Nikolay; Kan, Raymond
(2017-11-01)
This paper is concerned with statistical inference and model evaluation in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments. Strikingly, when spurious factors (that is, factors that are uncorrelated with the returns on the test assets) are present, the models exhibit perfect fit, as measured by the squared correlation between the model's fitted expected returns and the average realized returns. Furthermore, factors that are spurious are selected with high probability, while factors that are useful are ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2017-9
Working Paper
Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: A Comment
McCracken, Michael W.
(2019-07-29)
We investigate a test of equal predictive ability delineated in Giacomini and White (2006; Econometrica). In contrast to a claim made in the paper, we show that their test statistic need not be asymptotically Normal when a fixed window of observations is used to estimate model parameters. An example is provided in which, instead, the test statistic diverges with probability one under the null. Simulations reinforce our analytical results.
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-18
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
Amburgey, Aaron; McCracken, Michael W.
(2023-08-21)
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role.
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-020
Working Paper
Significance Bands for Local Projections
Inoue, Atsushi; Jordà, Òscar; Kuersteiner, Guido M.
(2023-05-31)
An impulse response function describes the dynamic evolution of an outcome variable following a stimulus or treatment. A common hypothesis of interest is whether the treatment affects the outcome. We show that this hypothesis is best assessed using significance bands rather than relying on commonly displayed confidence bands. Under the null hypothesis, we show that significance bands are trivial to construct with standard statistical software using the LM principle, and should be reported as a matter of routine when displaying impulse responses graphically.
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2023-15
Working Paper
Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications
Erdemlioglu, Deniz; Neely, Christopher J.; Yang, Xiye
(2023-07-20)
We develop a new framework to measure market-wide (systemic) tail risk in the cross-section of high-frequency stock returns. We estimate the time-varying jump intensities of asset prices and introduce a testing approach that identifies multi-asset tail risk based on the release times of scheduled news announcements. Using high-frequency data on individual U.S. stocks and sector-specific ETF portfolios, we find that most of the FOMC announcements create systemic left tail risk, but there is no evidence that macro announcements do so. The magnitude of the tail risk induced by Fed news varies ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-016
Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
Smith, Ron P.; Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem
(2021-05-27)
This paper, using the Bewley (1979) transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model, proposes a pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics, in the same setting as the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The Bewley transform enables us to obtain an analytical closed form expression for the PB, which is not available when using the maximum likelihood approach. This lets us establish asymptotic normality of PB as n,T→∞ jointly, allowing for applications with n and T large and of the same order of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 409
Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Judgment
Manganelli, Simone; Gelain, Paolo
(2020-05-21)
We consider two approaches to incorporate judgment into DSGE models. First, Bayesian estimation indirectly imposes judgment via priors on model parameters, which are then mapped into a judgmental interest rate decision. Standard priors are shown to be associated with highly unrealistic judgmental decisions. Second, judgmental interest rate decisions are directly provided by the decision maker and incorporated into a formal statistical decision rule using frequentist procedures. When the observed interest rates are interpreted as judgmental decisions, they are found to be consistent with DSGE ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-14
Report
On the Validity of Classical and Bayesian DSGE-Based Inference
Petrova, Katerina
(2024-01-01)
This paper studies large sample classical and Bayesian inference in a prototypical linear DSGE model and demonstrates that inference on the structural parameters based on a Gaussian likelihood is unaffected by departures from Gaussianity of the structural shocks. This surprising result is due to a cancellation in the asymptotic variance resulting into a generalized information equality for the block corresponding to the structural parameters. The underlying reason for the cancellation is the certainty equivalence property of the linear rational expectation model.The main implication of this ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1084
Working Paper
Spurious Inference in Unidentified Asset-Pricing Models
Robotti, Cesare; Gospodinov, Nikolay; Kan, Raymond
(2014-10-31)
This paper studies some seemingly anomalous results that arise in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments (GMM). Strikingly, when useless factors (that is, factors that are independent of the returns on the test assets) are present, the models exhibit perfect fit, as measured by the squared correlation between the model's fitted expected returns and the average realized returns, and the tests for correct model specification have asymptotic power that is equal to the nominal size. In other ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2014-12
Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
Smith, Ron P.; Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem
(2023-11-08)
Using a transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model due to Bewley, a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics is proposed. The PB estimator is directly comparable to the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations show good small sample performance of PB compared to the existing estimators in the literature, namely PMG, panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS) and panel fully-modified OLS (FMOLS). Application of two bias-correction ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 409
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