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Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Hamburg Crisis of 1799 and How Extreme Winter Weather Still Disrupts the Economy
Morgan, Donald P.; Skeie, David R.; Narron, James (2014-08-08)
With intermittent war raging across much of Western Europe near the end of the eighteenth century, by about 1795, Hamburg had replaced Amsterdam as an important hub for commodities trade. And from 1795 to 1799, Hamburg boomed. Prices for goods increased, the harbor was full, and warehouses were bulging. But when a harsh winter iced over the harbor, excess demand and speculation drove up prices. By spring, demand proved lower than supply, and prices started falling, credit tightened, and the decline in prices accelerated. So when a ship bound for Hamburg laden with gold sunk off the coast, an ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140808

Discussion Paper
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity
Adrian, Tobias; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2015-08-17)
Market participants and policymakers have recently raised concerns about market liquidity?the ability to buy and sell securities quickly, at any time, at minimal cost. Market liquidity supports the efficient allocation of capital through financial markets, which is a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Changes in market liquidity, whether due to regulation, changes in market structure, or otherwise, are therefore of great interest to policymakers and market participants alike.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150817

Discussion Paper
China’s Continuing Credit Boom
Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Rosenblum, Aaron; Etra, Alex (2017-02-27)
Debt in China has increased dramatically in recent years, accounting for roughly one-half of all new credit created globally since 2005. The country’s share of total global credit is nearly 25 percent, up from 5 percent ten years ago. By some measures (as documented below), China’s credit boom has reached the point where countries typically encounter financial stress, which could spill over to international markets given the size of the Chinese economy. To better understand the associated risks, it is important to examine the drivers of China’s expansion in credit, the increasing ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170227

Discussion Paper
Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-10-08)
Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast, the U.S. population is rising at a 0.7 percent annual rate and the working-age population is rising at a 0.2 percent rate. So far, supporting the growing share of Japan’s population that is 65 and over has been the substantial increase in the share of working-age women entering the labor force. In contrast, U.S. labor force participation rates have been falling for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141008

Discussion Paper
Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate
Raskin, Matthew; Moench, Emanuel; Rosa, Carlo; Stowe, Lisa; Boyle, Jeremiah P.; Crump, Richard K. (2014-12-05)
Market prices provide timely information on policy expectations. But as we emphasized in our previous post, they can deviate from investors? expectations of the most likely path because they embed risk premiums and represent probability-weighted averages over different possible paths. In contrast, surveys explicitly ask respondents for their views on the likely path of economic variables. In this post, we highlight two surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that provide information about expectations that can complement market-based measures.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141205a

Discussion Paper
Has Liquidity Risk in the Treasury and Equity Markets Increased?
Vogt, Erik; Fleming, Michael J.; Adrian, Tobias; Stackman, Daniel (2015-10-06)
Market participants have argued that market liquidity has deteriorated since the financial crisis. However, inspection of common metrics such as bid-ask spreads, market depth, and price impact do not show pronounced reductions in liquidity compared with precrisis levels. In this post, we argue that recent changes in liquidity conditions may best be described in terms of heightened liquidity risk, as opposed to general declines in liquidity levels. We propose a measure that shows liquidity risk has risen in equity and Treasury markets and discuss some factors behind the increase.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151006a

Discussion Paper
New Report Assesses Structural Changes in Global Banking
Dages, B. Gerard; Cetorelli, Nicola; Taber, Afshin; Licari, Paul (2018-02-02)
The Committee on the Global Financial System, made up of senior officials from central banks around the world and chaired by New York Fed President William Dudley, recently released a report on ?Structural Changes in Banking after the Crisis.? The report includes findings from a wide-ranging study documenting the significant structural adjustments in banking systems around the world in response to regulatory, technological, and market changes after the crisis, while also assessing their implications for financial stability, credit provision, and capital markets activity. It includes a new ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180202

Discussion Paper
How the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Works
Afonso, Gara; Logan, Lorie; Martin, Antoine; Riordan, Will; Zobel, Patricia (2022-01-11)
Daily take-up at the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility increased from less than $1 billion in early March 2021 to just under $2 trillion on December 31, 2021. In the second post in this series, we take a closer look at this important tool in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework and discuss the factors behind the recent increase in volume.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220111

Discussion Paper
Why Are China’s Households in the Doldrums?
Dawson, Jeffrey B. (2023-09-27)
A perennial challenge with China’s growth model has been overly high investment spending relative to GDP and unusually low consumer spending, something which China has long struggled to rebalance. As China attempts to move away from credit-intensive, investment-focused growth, the economy’s growth will have to rely on higher consumer spending. However, a prolonged household borrowing binge, COVID scarring and a deep slump in the property market in China have damaged household balance sheets and eroded consumer sentiment. In this post, we examine the impact of recent shocks on Chinese ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230927

Discussion Paper
How Do Banks Lend in Inaccurate Flood Zones in the Fed’s Second District?
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2023-11-13)
In our previous post, we identified the degree to which flood maps in the Federal Reserve’s Second District are inaccurate. In this post, we use our data on the accuracy of flood maps to examine how banks lend in “inaccurately mapped” areas, again focusing on the Second District in particular. We find that banks are seemingly aware of poor-quality flood maps and are generally less likely to lend in such regions, thereby demonstrating a degree of flood risk management or risk aversion. This propensity to avoid lending in inaccurately mapped areas can be seen in jumbo as well as non-jumbo ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231113

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