Working Paper
Where are global and U.S. trade heading in the aftermath of the trade collapse: issues and alternative scenarios
Schnatz, Bernd; di Mauro, Filippo; Gruber, Joseph W.; Zorell, Nico (2011)
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework ? an error correction model ? that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1017

Working Paper
The revealed competitiveness of U.S. exports
Del Gatto, Massimo; di Mauro, Filippo; Mandel, Benjamin R.; Gruber, Joseph W. (2011)
The U.S. share of world merchandise exports has declined sharply over the last decade. Using data at the level of detailed industries, this paper analyzes the decline in U.S. share against the backdrop of alternative measures of the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. We document the following facts: (i) only a few industries contributed to the decline in any meaningful way, (ii) a large part of the drop was driven by the changing size of U.S. export industries and not the size of U.S. sales within those industries, (iii) in a gravity framework, the majority of the decline in the U.S. export ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1026