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Working Paper
Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia
We document a slowdown in low-skilled immigration that began around the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with a subsequent rise in low-skilled wages, a decline in the skill premium, and labor shortages in service occupations. Falling returns to education also coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native workers. We then develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to rationalize these facts. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers but also to higher consumer prices and lower ...
Working Paper
Flexible prices, labor market frictions, and the response of employment to technology shocks
Recent empirical evidence establishes that a positive technology shock leads to a decline in labor inputs. Can a flexible price model enriched with labor market frictions replicate this stylized fact? We develop and estimate a standard flexible price model using Bayesian methods that allows, but does not require, labor market frictions to generate a negative response of employment to a technology shock. We find that labor market frictions account for the fall in labor inputs.
Working Paper
The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements
Fiscal announcements may transfer information about the government’s view of the macroeconomic outlook to the private sector, diminishing the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. We construct a novel dataset that combines daily data on Japanese stock prices with narrative records from press releases about a set of extraordinary fiscal packages introduced by the Japanese government from 2011-2020. We use local projections to show that these fiscal stimuli were often interpreted as negative news by the stock market whereas exogenous fiscal interventions that do not convey ...
Working Paper
Technology shocks, employment, and labor market frictions
Recent empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a decline in labor inputs. However, the standard real business cycle model fails to account for this empirical regularity. Can the presence of labor market frictions address this problem without otherwise altering the functioning of the model? We develop and estimate a real business cycle model using Bayesian techniques that allows but does not require labor market frictions to generate a negative response of employment to a technology shock. The results of the estimation support the hypothesis that labor market ...
Working Paper
Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy
We develop a quantitative business cycle model with search complementarities in the inter-firm matching process that entails a multiplicity of equilibria. An active equilibrium with strong joint venture formation, large output, and low unemployment coexists with a passive equilibrium with low joint venture formation, low output, and high unemployment. {{p}} Changes in fundamentals move the system between the two equilibria, generating large and persistent business cycle fluctuations. The volatility of shocks is important for the selection and duration of each equilibrium. Sufficiently adverse ...
Working Paper
The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that face search complementarities in the formation of vendor contracts. Search complementarities amplify small differences in productivity among firms. Market concentration fosters monopsony power in the labor market, magnifying profits and further enhancing the output share of high-productivity firms. The combination of search complementarities and monopsony power induce a strong "Matthew effect" that endogenously generates superstar firms out of uniform idiosyncratic productivity distributions. Reductions in ...