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Journal Article
Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy?s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.
Journal Article
Opportunity knocks: improved matching of jobs and workers
Tzemen and Willis illustrate that over the past year, workers found jobs more closely matched to their educational attainment.
Working Paper
The cost of labor adjustment : inferences from the gap
We study labor adjustment costs. We specify a dynamic optimization problem at the plant-level, allowing for both convex and non-convex adjustment costs. We estimate the parameters of the adjustment process using an indirect inference procedure in which simulated moments are matched with data moments. For this study we use estimates of reduced form adjustment functions obtained by the "gap methodology" reported in Caballero and Engel (1993). Contrary to evidence at the micro level in support of non-convex adjustment costs, our preliminary findings indicate that piecewise quadratic adjustment ...
Working Paper
The economics of labor adjustment : mind the gap
We study the inferences about labor adjustment costs obtained by the "gap methodology" of Caballero and Engel [1993] and Caballero, Engel and Haltiwanger [1997]. In that approach, the policy function of a manufacturing plant is assumed to depend on the gap between a target and the current level of employment. Using time series observations, these studies reject the quadratic cost of adjustment model and find that aggregate employment dynamics depend on the cross sectional distribution of employment gaps. We argue that these conclusions may not be justified. Instead these findings may ...
Journal Article
Coordination of expectations in the recent crisis: private actions and policy responses
Some of the events of the recent financial crisis have made clear the importance of expectations in an economy. The economic choices individuals make are often based on their expectations of what other people will do?in what economists call a ?coordination game.? In such situations, changes in the beliefs of what others may do can affect the actions of individuals. A key element in such situations is that, as the collective beliefs change and individuals respond to these altered expectations, the outcome in the marketplace can change. In the recent crisis, the coordination of expectations ...
Journal Article
Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics
Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation. ; Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity. ; Willis examines ...
Journal Article
What is Behind the Recent Increase in Labor Force Participation?
Didem Tzemen and Jonathan L. Willis find that the recent increase in labor force participation is due not to more workers entering the labor force, but to fewer workers exiting it.
Working Paper
Hours and employment implications of search frictions: matching aggregate and establishment-level observations
This paper studies worker and job flows at the establishment and aggregate levels. The paper is built around a set of facts concerning the variability of unemployment and vacancies in the aggregate, the distribution of net employment growth and the comovement of hours and employment growth at the establishment level. A search model with frictions in hiring and firing is used as a framework to understand these observations. Notable features of this search model include non-convex costs of posting vacancies, establishment level profitability shocks and a contracting framework that determines ...
Working Paper
Sticky information and sticky prices
In the U.S. and Europe, prices change somewhere between every six months and once a year. Yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year. "Sticky information" models, as posited by Sims (2003), Woodford (2003), and Mankiw and Reis (2002), can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity. We simulate a sticky information model in which price setters do not update their information on macro shocks as often as they update their information on micro shocks. Compared to a standard menu cost model, price changes in this model reflect older macro shocks. We then ...
Journal Article
What impact will E-commerce have on the U.S. economy?
In recent years, e-commerce has emerged as the fastest growing sector of the U.S. marketplace. Despite the contraction in the high-tech industry during the recent recession, firms have continued to enter and expand their presence in e-commerce, and consumers have increased the number of purchases made online. E-commerce currently represents a very small share of overall commerce, but it is expected to continue to expand rapidly in coming years. As e-commerce grows, so will its impact on the overall economy. ; The primary route by which e-commerce will affect the economy at large is through ...