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Working Paper
Forecasted Treatment Effects
We consider estimation and inference about the effects of a policy in the absence of a control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the average treatment effects, based on forecasting counterfactuals using a short time series of pre-treatment data. We show that the focus should be on forecast unbiasedness rather than accuracy. Correct specification of the forecasting model is not necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the individual treatment effects. Instead, simple basis function ...
Working Paper
Simultaneity in Binary Outcome Models with an Application to Employment for Couples
Two of Peter Schmidt’s many contributions to econometrics have been to introduce a simultaneous logit model for bivariate binary outcomes and to study estimation of dynamic linear fixed effects panel data models using short panels. In this paper, we study a dynamic panel data version of the bivariate model introduced in Schmidt and Strauss (1975) that allows for lagged dependent variables and fixed effects as in Ahn and Schmidt (1995). We combine a conditional likelihood approach with a method of moments approach to obtain an estimation strategy for the resulting model. We apply this ...