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Working Paper
The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework
In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view from the perspective of an equilibrium business cycle model in which rational expectations of a devaluation are conditioned on foreign reserves. The model explains some of the empirical regularities of the business cycle associated with temporary fixed-exchange-rate regimes. In turn, these cyclical ...
Working Paper
Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans
This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small, open, monetary economy in order to analyze the short-run effects of credible stabilization plans that fix the nominal exchange rate in a regime of free convertibility. In this model inflation acts as a tax on domestic market transactions. In particular, it generates a wedge between the rate of return on investment in domestic capital and the rate of return on investment in foreign assets. The model stresses the importance of adjustment costs (including gestation lags) in explaining the precise character of the initial ...
Conference Paper
Stabilization policy and the costs of dollarization
Working Paper
A model of the Twin Ds: optimal default and devaluation
This paper characterizes jointly optimal default and exchange-rate policy in a small open economy with limited enforcement of debt contracts and downward nominal wage rigidity. Under optimal policy, default occurs during contractions and is accompanied by large devaluations. The latter inflate away real wages, thereby avoiding massive unemployment. Thus, the Twin Ds phenomenon emerges endogenously as the optimal outcome. In contrast, under fixed exchange rates, optimal default takes place in the context of large involuntary unemployment. Fixed-exchange-rate economies are shown to have ...
Journal Article
Policy implications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve
This article surveys recent advancements in the theory of optimal monetary policy in models with a New Keynesian Phillips curve. It identifies four policy implications. First, near price stability is optimal. Second, simple interest rate feedback rules that respond aggressively to price inflation deliver near-optimal equilibrium allocations. Third, interest rate rules that respond to deviations of output from trend may carry significant welfare costs. Fourth, the zero bound on nominal interest rates does not appear to be a significant obstacle for the actual implementation of low and stable ...
Conference Paper
Incomplete cost pass-through under deep habits
Working Paper
Country spreads and emerging countries
A number of studies have stressed the role of movements in U.S. interest rates and country spreads in driving business cycles in emerging market economies. At the same time, country spreads have been found to respond to changes in both the U.S. interest rate and domestic conditions in emerging markets. These intricate interrelationships leave open a number of fundamental questions: Do country spreads drive business cycles in emerging countries or vice versa, or both? Do U.S. interest rates affect emerging countries directly or primarily through their effect on country spreads? This paper ...
Working Paper
Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement
This paper analyzes the implications of a balanced budget fiscal policy rule for the determinacy of the price level in a cash-in-advance economy under three alternative monetary policy regimes. It shows that, in such stylized models with flexible prices and a period-by-period balanced budget requirement, the price level is determinate under a money growth rate peg and is indeterminate under a pure nominal interest rate peg. Under a feedback rule whereby the nominal interest rate is set as an increasing function of the inflation rate, the price level is determinate for intermediate values of ...
Working Paper
Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability
The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven ...