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Working Paper
Learning to export from neighbors
This paper studies how learning from neighboring firms affects new exporters? performance. We develop a statistical decision model in which a firm updates its prior belief about demand in a foreign market based on several factors, including the number of neighbors currently selling there, the level and heterogeneity of their export sales, and the firm?s own prior knowledge about the market. A positive signal about demand inferred from neighbors? export performance raises the firm?s probability of entry and initial sales in the market but, conditional on survival, lowers its post-entry growth. ...
Working Paper
The domestic segment of global supply chains in China under state capitalism
This paper proposes methods to incorporate firm heterogeneity in the standard IO-table based approach to portray the domestic segment of global value chains in a country. Using Chinese firm census data for both manufacturing and service sectors, along with constrained optimization techniques, we split the conventional IO table into sub-accounts, which are used to estimate direct and indirect domestic value added in exports of different types of firm. We find that in China, both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and small and medium domestic private enterprises (SMEs) have much higher shares of ...