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Journal Article
Is the United States losing its productivity advantage?
Strikingly high rates of labor productivity growth in China, India, and other emerging economies have prompted concerns that U.S. workers and firms are losing ground to their competitors in world markets. A closer look at the evidence, however, suggests that rapid foreign productivity growth will bring gains as well as losses to the U.S. economy. Some import-competing firms may be compelled to restructure or leave the market, but consumers will benefit from lower import prices and more import varieties, and U.S. exporters may gain access to cheaper intermediate products from abroad.
Working Paper
Explaining a productive decade
This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth in recent years using both aggregate and industry-level data. We confirm the central role for information technology (IT) in the productivity revival during 1995-2000 and show that IT played a significant, though smaller, role after 2000. Productivity growth after 2000 appears to have been boosted by industry restructuring and cost cutting in response to profit pressures, an unlikely source of future strength. In addition, the incorporation of intangible capital into the growth accounting framework takes some of the luster off the ...
Working Paper
Climate Change and Double Materiality in a Micro- and Macroprudential Context
This paper presents a stylized framework of bank risk-taking to help clarify the concept of "double materiality," the idea that supervisory authorities should consider both the risks that banks face from climate change and the impact of a bank’s actions on climate change. The paper shows that the concept of double materiality can be coherently embedded in a microprudential framework, but the practical implications could be quite similar to the implications of a single materiality perspective. The importance of a double materiality perspective becomes larger when one considers ...
Speech
Climate Change and Risk Management in Bank Supervision
Remarks at Risks, Opportunities, and Investment in the Era of Climate Change, Harvard Business School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Speech
A Microprudential Perspective on the Financial Risks of Climate Change
Remarks at the 2020 Climate Risk Symposium, Global Association of Risk Professionals (delivered via videoconference).
Report
Too big to fail after all these years
The naming of eleven banks as "too big to fail (TBTF)" in 1984 led bond raters to raise their ratings on new bond issues of TBTF banks about a notch relative to those of other, unnamed banks. The relationship between bond spreads and ratings for the TBTF banks tended to flatten after that event, suggesting that investors were even more optimistic than raters about the probability of support for those banks. The spread-rating relationship in the 1990s remained flatter for TBTF banks (or their descendants) even after the passage of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act ...
Journal Article
Why Do Supervisors Rate Banking Organizations?
This article addresses a question that at first may appear simple: why do supervisors rate banking organizations? Prudential supervisors have a long-standing practice of confidentially rating the condition of the firms that they supervise. These ratings are used for a variety of purposes and can have important consequences. The authors analyze the history and evolution of this practice and consider how the use of ratings advances the statutory and regulatory goals of supervision of banking organizations. They conclude with a discussion of the implications for the design and implementation of ...
Working Paper
Climate Change and Double Materiality in a Micro- and Macroprudential Context
This paper presents a stylized framework of bank risk-taking to help clarify the concept of "double materiality," the idea that supervisory authorities should consider both the risks that banks face from climate change and the impact of a bank’s actions on climate change. The paper shows that the concept of double materiality can be coherently embedded in a microprudential framework, but the practical implications could be quite similar to the implications of a single materiality perspective. The importance of a double materiality perspective becomes larger when one considers ...
Journal Article
Commentary on \\"A reconsideration of the risk sensitivity of U.S. banking organization subordinated debt spreads: a sample selection approach\\"
This paper was part of the conference "Beyond Pillar 3 in International Banking Regulation: Disclosure and Market Discipline of Financial Firms," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia Business School, October 2-3, 2003.
Journal Article
Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence
Following the 1995-2000 period of more rapid output growth and lower inflation in the United States, economists have strenuously debated whether improvements in economic performance can be sustained. The recession that began in March 2001 intensified the debate, and the economic impacts of the events of September 11 have yet to be fully understood. Both factors add to the considerable uncertainties about future growth that currently face decision makers in both the public and private sectors. ; In this article, the authors analyze the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 ...