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Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Journal Article
The role of banks in monetary policy: a survey with implications for the European Monetary Union
This article begins with a review of the growing literature on the role of banks in the transmission of monetary policy. The authors then discuss the implications of this literature for the operation of monetary policy in the European monetary union.
Journal Article
Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission? commentary
Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Journal Article
Commentary on \\"Rebalancing the three pillars of Basel II.\\"
This paper was part of the conference "Beyond Pillar 3 in International Banking Regulation: Disclosure and Market Discipline of Financial Firms," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia Business School, October 2-3, 2003.
Working Paper
Dollar funding and the lending behavior of global banks
A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale dollar funding, while raising more of their euro funding through insured retail deposits, the shock leads to a greater withdrawal of dollar funding. Banks can borrow in euros and swap into dollars to make up for the dollar shortfall, but this may lead to violations of covered interest parity (CIP) when there is limited capital to ...
Journal Article
Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards
This article reviews the economic efficiency implications of the Basel II capital standards. The authors argue that the mapping from measures of loan risk to capital requirements should not be time-invariant, but rather should be allowed to vary with business cycle conditions. They also attempt to assess empirically how much cyclicality in capital requirements might be induced by the current Basel II proposal. They find that the degree of cyclicality can be substantial.