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Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
This paper, using the Bewley (1979) transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model, proposes a pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics, in the same setting as the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The Bewley transform enables us to obtain an analytical closed form expression for the PB, which is not available when using the maximum likelihood approach. This lets us establish asymptotic normality of PB as n,T→∞ jointly, allowing for applications with n and T large and of the same order of ...
Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
Using a transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model due to Bewley, a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics is proposed. The PB estimator is directly comparable to the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations show good small sample performance of PB compared to the existing estimators in the literature, namely PMG, panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS) and panel fully-modified OLS (FMOLS). Application of two bias-correction ...
Working Paper
Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis
The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them. We argue that this outcome could be due to episodic failure of cointegration, possible two-way causality between the variables in the ratios and cross-country error dependence due to latent factors. We propose a ...
Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
This paper, using the Bewley (1979) transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model, proposes a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics, in the same setting as the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Asymptotic normality of the PB estimator is established, and Monte Carlo simulations reveal a good small sample performance of PB compared with existing estimators in the literature, namely PMG, PDOLS and FMOLS. This paper also considers application of two bias-correction methods and a bootstrapping ...
Working Paper
Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis
Kaldor called the constancy of certain ratios stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud called them great ratios. While they often appear in theoretical models, the empirical literature finds little evidence for them, perhaps because the procedures used cannot deal with lack of cointegration, two-way causality and cross-country error dependence. We propose a new system pooled mean group estimator that can deal with these features. Monte Carlo results show it performs well compared with other estimators, and using it on a dataset over 150 years and 17 countries, we find support for five of the ...
‘Great Ratios’ in Economics Don’t All Add Up
'Great ratios' are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.